The global ISKP threat is growing: Part 1

In the first weeks of June, the intelligence services of several states conducted counter-terrorism operations against Islamic State networks with ties to its ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP) affiliate, concentrated in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asian states.

Countermeasures included not just physical arrests of individuals associated with ISKP, but also the blocking of several websites used by the group.

Countries have decided to take tough action against ISKP amid new threats spreading both locally and internationally. Over the past two months, the group has been increasing its influence through online propaganda and conspiracies both in the countries where it operates and abroad, with a particular focus on the West.

As part of its global strategy, the group is trying to coordinate the preparation of terrorist attacks at international events. In particular, ISKP has focused on ramping up propaganda around sporting events taking place around the world this year, such as Euro 2024 in Germany, the Olympics in France and the ICC T20 World Cup in the US. Much of the propaganda encourages Islamic State supporters to wreak havoc on event-goers and carry out attacks similar to the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22.

In recent weeks, Western intelligence agencies, governments and analysts have warned of a terrorist threat during such events.

The head of Germany's domestic intelligence service, Thomas Haldenwang, said his country is currently taking measures to prevent possible terrorist attacks during Euro 2024.

The statements were supported by chief security officer of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey security chief Greg Erie, who said that the threat from ISKP was not only growing, but remained invisible, and therefore largely unpredictable for intelligence officials.

Similarly, earlier this month, FBI Director Chris Wray told the US Senate that terrorist cells operating under the auspices of ISKP could attempt to carry out an attack inside the country, replicating the attack on Crocus City Hall.

General Frank McKenzie, former commander of CENTCOM, also spoke about the likelihood of a similar threat in the United States. The danger, he said, is not only that Washington has limited ability to predict and thwart ISKP plots, but also that the group has demonstrated the ability and willingness to carry out large-scale terrorist attacks.

French authorities have also repeatedly warned that ISKP is planning attacks during the Olympics.

EU counter-terrorism coordinator Bartjan Vegter stressed that the group poses a growing threat, pointing to the “diffuse” nature of the threat posed by it. For this reason, Western countries have strengthened security measures and carried out a series of arrests of individuals associated with the Islamic State and ISKP.

So, on June 9, police in Cologne (Germany) arrested a man who applied for a job as part of the Euro 2024 team. He reportedly planned to carry out attacks during matches and maintained contacts with ISKP, transferring almost $1,700 in cryptocurrency to the organization.

A week earlier, in Saint-Etienne, France, police foiled preparations for a terrorist attack at the 2024 Olympic Games by arresting a suspect who was planning to attack a local stadium. Although security forces have not revealed his affiliation with any specific Islamic State affiliate, it is worth noting that after the Crocus City Hall attack, French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned the discovery of several ISKP plots in the country.

At the same time, several countries managed to prevent terrorist attacks planned by other Islamic State cells or individuals associated with other terrorist groups.

French authorities have also repeatedly warned that ISKP was planning attacks during the Olympics.

EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator Bartjan Vegter stressed that the group poses a growing threat, pointing to the “diffuse” nature of the threat emanating from it. For this reason, Western countries have strengthened security measures and carried out a series of arrests of individuals associated with the Islamic State and ISKP.

Thus, on June 9, police in Cologne (Germany) arrested a man who applied for a job as part of the Euro 2024 team. He reportedly planned to carry out attacks during matches and maintained contacts with ISKP, transferring almost $1,700 in cryptocurrency to the organization.

A week earlier, in Saint-Etienne, France, police foiled preparations for a terrorist attack at the 2024 Olympic Games by arresting a suspect who was planning to attack a local stadium. Although security forces have not revealed his affiliation with any specific Islamic State affiliate, it is worth noting that after the Crocus City Hall attack, French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned the discovery of several ISKP plots in the country.

At the same time, several countries succeeded in preventing terrorist attacks planned by other Islamic State cells or individuals associated with other terrorist groups.

For example, on June 7, the FBI, Interpol and Spanish authorities eliminated a cell that planned to attack a bus carrying Real Madrid players and fans.

However, perhaps the most effective operation was the arrest of eight Tajik citizens in Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia on June 11 on suspicion of ties to ISKP and their intention to carry out terrorist attacks in the United States. The alleged infiltration of the country through the southern border has raised questions among the country's leadership regarding the work of security services and intelligence gathering.

In this context, American media reports are especially noteworthy. According to them, over the past few years the influx of illegal migrants from Tajikistan to the United States has sharply increased.

Thus, from October 2020 to May 2024, more than 1,500 citizens of Tajikistan crossed the border between the United States and Mexico, with at least 500 of them detained in the first half of 2024 (for comparison, over the previous 14 years, only 26 citizens of Tajikistan crossed the border).

It is unknown how many Tajik migrants have been released into the United States, but the vast majority of those caught crossing the border have sought asylum and are allowed to remain in the country while awaiting trial. Experts believe that the influx of Tajik citizens may include the “transportation” of individuals associated with ISKP to the United States to prepare and carry out terrorist attacks.