Based on materials from the South Asia Counter Terrorism Portal (SATP), India

The Tribal District of Bajaur has witnessed a significant rise in terrorist attacks on local politicians, religious scholars, tribal elders and Government officials over the past few years. 

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Bajaur District has already recorded at least 35 terrorism-related fatalities (20 civilians, 12 SF personnel and three terrorists) in 2024, thus far (data till June 7, 2024). 

During the corresponding period of 2023, the province had registered 14 terrorism-related fatalities (five civilians, two SF trooper and seven terrorists). In the remaining period of 2023, another 77 fatalities (68 civilians, one SF trooper and eight terrorists) were recorded. 

If the fatalities of one suicide attack on July 30 is deducted, in which 54 people perished, the half-yearly fatalities figure was almost the same as the annual fatalities. 

 

Fatalities in the first six months of the current year in Bajaur have already crossed all previous recorded annual fatalities since 2000, with the exception of 2023, which was the highest due to the major suicide attack of July 30. 

Bajaur District has accounted for a total of 234 fatalities (148 civilians, 43 terrorists and 43 SF personnel) since March 6, 2000, when SATP commenced compiling data on Pakistan. These fatalities have been recorded in a total of 93 incidents of killing. 16 of these 93 incidents were 'major’ (each involving three or more fatalities). These major incidents resulted in the death of 131 persons (78 civilians, 32 terrorists and 21 SF personnel).

The district has recorded a total of 143 violent incidents since March 6, 2000, including 55 incidents of explosion and three suicide attacks. The biggest major attack of the District occurred on July 30, 2023, when a suicide attack claimed lives of at least 54 people, including a Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) local leader, while more than another 100 sustained injuries at the JUI-F workers' convention at Shanday Morr near the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) office in the Khar town of the District. The blast that took place during the speech of a JUI-F leader, Maulana Laeeq. ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack.

 With a population of more than 1.28 million, Bajaur had been a hotbed of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) activities, as it is located on the volatile Pakistan-Afghan border, sharing its Western border with Afghanistan's Kunar Province. The district shares borders with three other districts of KP: Lower Dir in the North, Mohmand to the South and Malakand to the West. Two of these adjoining districts, Mohmand and Lower Dir, also share borders with Afghanistan. 

As a result of multiple operations by the Pakistan Army in the tribal areas [the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)], the district became relatively peaceful and overall fatalities came down to a low of four in 2018. 

Since 2019, a regional branch of the Islamic State, ISKP has primarily been responsible for the targeted assassination campaign in the District. The Khorasan Diary (TKD), an Islamabad-based news and research platform that monitors militant groups, however, noted on August 1, 2023, that the IS-KP had claimed responsibility for at least 23 attacks, exclusively targeting the JUI-F in Bajaur alone, since 2019. 

Riccardo Valle, director of research at TKD, revealed on August 1, 2023, on July 3, 2024, former senator Hidayatullah Khan was killed along with four others when his vehicle was attacked with an improvised explosive device (IED) in Damadol area of Bajaur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Bajaur district police officer Sajjad Ahmad said the former senator was on his way to the Damadolu by-election when he was attacked. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, while the TTP has denied involvement, saying its focus is on security forces rather than civilians.

 

On June 30, 2024, Dr. Abdul Rashid, working at Khar District Hospital, was shot dead by unknown militants in Mamond area of Bajaur Agency. Several years before that, he shot two militants who came to extort money from him. Since then he had received threats and had been attacked more than 25 times in the last 5 years. 

 

On June 5, 2024, a police constable was shot dead in a targeted killing incident at Shah Wali Inayat Kallai Bazar in Bajaur district. ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack.

The seeds of hostility between ISKP and JUI-F lie in their conflicting policies. Anti-JUI-F sentiment initially developed in the TTP led by then TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud, who supported the idea of attacking JUI-F chief Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman and the rest of his party's top leadership because of their pro-democracy stance.

In late 2014, some prominent leaders of the TTP breakaway faction pledged bayah (allegiance) to then-Islamic State (IS) emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Among those who pledged allegiance to IS were then TTP "spokesman" Shahidullah Shahid; “Head” of the Kurram Agency (territorial unit) Hafiz Kuran Dolat; Khyber Agency “head” Gul Zaman; the “head” of Peshawar, Mufti Hassan; "head" of Hangu Khalid Mansour; and the “head” of the Orakzai agency, Hafiz Saeed Khan.

Soon thereafter, the group moved its base to the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan, like most terrorist groups operating in the Pashtun tribal areas of Pakistan, under the influence of Operation Zarb-e-Azb launched by the Pakistani army.

 

On January 26, 2015, the establishment of ISKP consisting of 12 members of the Shura (leadership council), consisting of nine Pakistanis, two Afghans and one person of unknown origin was officially announced. Hafiz Said Khan became Emir. However, he was killed on July 26, 2016 in Achin district of Nangarhar province in Afghanistan. Later, in May 2019, a separate branch was created for Pakistan - the Province of the Islamic State of Pakistan (IS-PP).

While the feud between ISKP and JUI-F does have a history, there has been a significant escalation in attacks recently as ISKP believes that JUI-F is closely aligned with the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

 

A report by the Khyber Pukhtunkhwa Home and Tribal Affairs Department dated November 25, 2023 noted that Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) is the most vulnerable among the major political parties to terrorist attacks in the province. While the TTP targeted security personnel, ISKP attacks on civilians intensified, making the security situation in Bajaur two times as bad.