In its non-typical public statement late July 16, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that six months into 2024, the Islamic State (IS) has more than doubled the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it reported in 2023. 

IS has now carried out 153 attacks in both countries between January and June, according to CENTCOM, noting that "the increase in attacks indicates ISIS is attempting to reconstitute following several years of decreased capability."

CENTCOM commander Gen. J. Michael E. Kurilla insists that achieving the final defeat of IS remains dependent on "the combined efforts of the Coalition and partners", which is a clear signal of the Pentagon's position ahead of bilateral US-Iraq talks in Washington next week on the future presence of the coalition to fight ISIS in Iraq.

CENTCOM being willing to publicly point to the rise of ISIS in 2024 is one thing, but the reality is much worse than the statement suggested. Why is that? CENTCOM's metric for assessing IS attacks is the terrorist group's claims of responsibility, but as has been known for years, IS claims only a fraction of its attacks in Syria and Iraq in an apparent attempt to disguise its systematic recovery.

 

This recovery is a tangible reality in Syria, but not in Iraq. While IS carried out 122 attacks in Iraq in 2023, that number dropped to just 35 in the first six months of 2024, suggesting a potential 43% decline this year. But while CENTCOM says IS carried out 153 attacks in Syria in the first half of 2024, daily monitoring of reports of IS attacks across the country shows the true number to be 551 in areas controlled by both the US and its partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as well as the Syrian regime.

As is obvious fr om the above data, in 2024 there was a sharp surge in IS attacks in Syria. While CENTCOM believes that IS will double the pace of its activities this year, the reality is far more alarming, according to the local sources.

In its July 16 statement, CENTCOM also documented actions taken to combat ISIS. In Iraq, 137 joint US-Iraqi operations were conducted from January to June 2024, ensuring that 30 IS militants were killed and 74 were detained. Such operations play a vital role in suppressing IS, contributing to the 43% reduction in attacks noted above.

But next door in Syria, wh ere IS is on the rise, CENTCOM's counterterrorism operations are much fewer, with 59 operations resulting in 14 IS fighters killed and 92 detained. This represents a potential 16% reduction in operations compared to 2023 and a 72% reduction in the number of IS fighters killed and captured.

Americans believe that the blame for this reduction in operational activity against ISIS lies primarily with Iran and its militant proxies in Iraq and Syria, which have carried out at least 185 attacks on US troops since October 2023, significant limiting the freedom of maneuver of the US military, especially in Syria.

However, the ingredients for the rise of IS in 2024 were evident in Syria before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. IS had been slowly and methodically rebuilding its capabilities since 2020, especially in the regime-controlled central badia (desert). It is in this vast space with a sparse population that IS has slowly rebuilt itself in recent years, benefiting from a regime that lacks the capacity to deal with a fragmented insurgency and whose track record against IS leaves much to be desired.

 

IS's deeper investment in regime-controlled areas is illustrated by how deadly its attacks have been over the past year: 82 people have been killed in SDF-controlled areas and 566 in regime-controlled territory.

Over the past six months, IS has produced and deployed at least three vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, a nearly unseen occurrence since the group last held territory in 2019 and a clear indication of improved logistics chains supplies and access to secure production facilities.

The number of attacks using improvised explosive devices has also increased significantly this year, as have the number of complex mass attacks, coordinated ambushes, raids, pop-up highway checkpoints and targeted killings.

IS attacks in Syria this year have also involved larger numbers of fighters operating in the open for longer periods of time; this suggests a much greater willingness to potentially lose supporters in combat and implies that recruitment is no longer an issue.

IS attacks are also increasingly penetrating urban areas and hitting more strategic targets such as oil and gas installations and military checkpoints. 

IS shadow control is also back; a well-coordinated extortion network is once again widespread, and IS fighters are issuing individual “tax” bills to local businesses and imposing customs duties on commercial freight transport on major roads.

Meanwhile, both IS and SDF have published information about activities in the first half of 2024. The IS report details attacks carried out by the organization around the world, with a total of 156 attacks reported in Syria, which are believed to have killed and injured 393 people.

This makes Syria the Islamic State's second most active province after Nigeria (232 attacks, 609 casualties), followed by the DRC (135 attacks, 762 casualties), Mozambique (68 attacks, 137 casualties) and Iraq (53 attacks, 96 casualties). respectively.

The SDF reported 120 attacks in territory it controlled in those six months, including 89 in Deir ez-Zor, 21 in Hasakah, 6 in Manbij and 4 in Raqqa governorate.