The latest issue of the extremist English-language publication Voice of Khorasan, published by the terrorist group Islamic State (IS), contained reports in which the organization's leadership claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks in Crocus City Hall near Moscow, Kerman in Iran, and an attack on a church in Istanbul, stating that the "Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has become "an immediate danger to infidels around the world," especially in recent months. In conclusion, the authors of the article reproach the Afghan Taliban movement for failing to stop the aggression of the regional branch of IS and threaten that the number of attacks carried out by the group's militants will steadily increase.

 

The stepping up of the activities of ISKP is not least due to the growth of extremist sentiments in the Central Asian region, which has already led to an increase in security risks. ISKP took advantage of the structural shifts that occurred after the fall of the so-called “core” of ISIS in Iraq and Syria in 2019 and started positioning itself as the ideological stronghold of ISIS in Central Asia.

In re-evaluating regional and international strategy, the leadership of the Afghanistan- and Pakistan-based unit has concluded that the territorial proximity of Central Asia offers an opportunity to expand ISKP influence into the region, with a particular focus on recruitment and fundraising in Central and South Asia. 

ISKP’s growing propaganda outreach and operational capabilities have raised growing concerns among global players on all sides of the geopolitical divide, including the United States, China, Russia, India, and Iran.

In the lead-up to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover in August 2021, ISKP began updating its doctrine and developed a strategy of regionalization and internationalization, including ramping up the production of multilingual propaganda.

In 2022, the group launched media outlets in Uzbek and Tajik, presenting Central Asian militants as an example to existing and potential supporters.

ISKP seeks to attract extremists by portraying the Taliban as Pashtun-centric and hostile to other ethnic groups, citing the Taliban's crushing of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) after the group pledged allegiance to IS in 2015. The wives and children of IMU fighters were also allegedly killed. 

The propaganda efforts have borne some fruit, with ISKP militants from Central Asia increasingly participating in attacks both inside and outside Afghanistan. The organization’s networks have rapidly expanded westward, with their ends traced to Europe and North America. However, the real problem is that, while analysts have focused on ISKP activities in the West, the Central Asian factor in the group’s growing terrorist activities has been overlooked. 

ISKP has positioned itself as the only force capable of combating the secular regimes of Central Asian governments. During the era of the so-called “caliphate,” numerous streams of fighters from Central Asia were sent to Iraq and Syria. At the moment, the region serves as the main source of ISKP supporters. There has been a noticeable increase in the number of arrests and foiled plots to commit terrorist attacks linked to ISKP in Central Asia in recent times, indicating increased attention from intelligence agencies and demonstrating their priorities.

 

In late December 2023, two teenagers were arrested on suspicion of plotting terrorist attacks at multiple sites in the southern Kyrgyz city of Jalal-Abad.

A few months later, a car bomb exploded in Tajikistan’s Kulyab region, and was later determined to be linked to ISKP.

In June this year, 15 individuals linked to the group were arrested in Bishkek and other Kyrgyz cities. They were accused of posting videos online with advice on how to use weapons and explosives.

That same month, a cell presumedly made up of women was reported to be planning to attack “Western targets” in Kazakhstan, although the government denied this information.

ISKP success in recruiting Central Asia natives poses a major security threat to the region. A recent UN report found that the group has increased its presence in northern Afghanistan, is focusing on recruiting individuals from Tajik and Uzbek communities, is stockpiling weapons and explosives in the area, and is seeking to establish territorial control in order to penetrate deeper into Central Asian countries. 

Given these trends, it is clear that ISKP is poised on intensifying its efforts to incite violence in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and other republics in the region.