American experts on the growing role of ISIS-Somalia in the global network of the Islamic State

On May 31, the United States carried out an airstrike against members of the Islamic State of Somalia (IS-S) affiliate near Daadaar in the northeastern region of the country. U.S. Africa Command later estimated that three militants were eliminated in the strike, which reportedly targeted Abdul Qadir Mumin, a senior IS-S leader and a senior operative in the Islamic State’s (IS) global organizational network. After the strike, U.S. officials said that IS was playing an increasingly important operational role and posed a growing international threat. U.S. intelligence assessed that Abdul Qadir Mumin was even Islamic State’s caliph, which many experts were vocally critical about. IS’s caliph is supposed to be of Prophet Muhammad’s Quraysh tribal lineage and ethnically Arab, which Mumin is not. However, he is one of the only longstanding international IS leaders still living and it is very plausible he has been given greater authority in the global IS network. This may be in the form of a top leadership role in IS’s General Directorate of Provinces — a body that administers IS’s global network of branches, gives operational guidance, oversees financing, and more. 

With this increased power and authority, the Somalia branch is internationalizing its vision and reach. Other figures, such as Bilal al-Sudani, a former high-ranking IS-S operative killed by US Navy SEALS in early 2023, have helped develop IS-S’s international capabilities. The U.S. Treasury designated him for financing IS elements in South Africa and was subsequently accused of funding and assisting the IS-K Kabul airport attack. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin detailed how “al-Sudani was responsible for fostering the growing presence of IS in Africa” as well as in Mozambique and the Congo. American experts point out that, as demonstrated by the March 22 attack on the Crocus City Hall concert hall by the Afghanistan- and Pakistan-based group ISKP, the organization’s external operations and inspired threats of violence are becoming increasingly complex and multi-vectored. ISIS remains more hierarchical than its rival al-Qaeda, but its international branches are becoming more integrated and increasingly playing a larger role in its international terrorist activities.

While ISKP has emerged as an additional hub for transnational terrorist attacks and plots, IS-S has become a key player in the organization’s global network after being tasked by central leadership to work more closely with international funding, logistics, operational assistance, and recruitment of foreign fighters.

IS has established and expanded its territorial control in the mountainous region of northern Somalia, providing a safe haven as a foothold for operations. According to the weekly Al-Naba newsletter article published earlier this year, the territory was won after a nearly year-long battle with al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab in the semi-autonomous state of Puntland. Al-Shabaab eventually retreated, allowing IS-S to consolidate its control. 

IS-Somalia’s expanded control over a larger area in the north of the country allows it to more comfortably operate the East Africa regional office of Al-Karrar, which it hosts to manage financial programs, militant operations, and logistics, as well as to support IS groups across East and Southern Africa. Al-Karrar supports IS activities and collaborates with international networks in the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mozambique, and elsewhere. These activities include sending trainers and funding to IS branches in the CAR, DRC, and Mozambique. 

IS-Somalia’s appeal extends beyond Somalia, attracting foreign fighters from Ethiopia, Morocco, Syria, and elsewhere. It is supported by a network of pro-IS propaganda outlets that publish original and translated video, audio, and print materials targeting regional audiences in Amharic, Somali, Oromo, and Swahili. 

Besides, I’lam Foundation, the leading global ISIS propaganda database and archival site, posts narratives in Somali, Oromo, and Amharic, collected over many years and updated daily. Fursan al-Tarjuma, a multilingual umbrella coalition of ISIS-supporting networks that produces content in 20 languages, has partnered with ISIS-supporting networks to amplify their propaganda in Somali and Swahili and further integrate the affiliate’s support apparatus globally.

The United Nations reported that the Somali affiliate has sent dozens of thousands of dollars in cryptocurrency to ISKP.

Along with IS-S’s involvement in the August 2021 ISKP suicide bombing at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport that killed 13 U.S. service members and nearly 170 Afghan civilians, it has also been linked to several plots and arrests in the West dating back to 2018.

That same year, a Somali national was arrested in Italy on suspicion of plotting bombings at churches and the Vatican. The United Nations said it was the first official IS plot linked to the Somali branch outside its area of operations.

Despite the incident in Italy, Sweden has emerged as a leading European hub for ISIS support, recruitment, incitement to violence, and possibly remotely controlled operations. In March 2024, Swedish police said they were seeing an increase in the number of Swedish citizens attempting to travel and join ISIS affiliates in Africa.

Sweden is home to a significant Somali diaspora; therefore, ISIS sees an opportunity to gain influence here and reach out to extremist elements and potential supporters. Recent arrests of ISIS-linked individuals confirm this trend, given that an operation in March 2024 resulted in the destruction of a four-member cell in Tyresko, south of Stockholm. The group, which included two brothers who had converted to Christianity, was suspected of terrorism and accused of weapons-related crimes. 

Shortly thereafter, a 60-year-old imam who had led the Tiresko mosque since the early 2000s and had deep community roots, including serving as chairman of a cultural association, was arrested for his involvement in that very cell. Later, another member of the Tiresko network was targeted in a raid that seized weapons linked to the Israeli embassy shooting. Sweden’s security service SAPO believes that the imam’s mosque was used to recruit criminals for radical Islamist causes. IS-S has expanded its territorial control while also gaining increased authority and operational responsibility. Like ISKP, which has financial and operational ties, IS-S uses Somali diaspora communities in Europe to finance, recruit, incite violence, and perhaps soon, formalize foreign operations. Given these ties, it is even possible that IS-S and ISKP could collaborate to plan, attempt, or carry out attacks in the West, particularly in Europe. IS could also begin to target Western, foreign, and other interests in Somalia, East Africa, other parts of the continent, and beyond.

Key Takeaways

On May 31, Abdul Qadir Mumin, the founder and one the top leaders of IS-S, was killed in a US airstrike. US intelligence officials have suggested he may be the caliph of IS, though many experts remain skeptical.

US officials have warned that IS-S poses a growing threat and has gained greater prominence within the global Islamic State network.

A series of arrests in recent months have shown IS-S’s growing support base and networks in Sweden, while the Somali branch has also been linked to at least one case in Italy.

As the threat to IS's external operations comes from a growing number of affiliates and actors, IS-S could become a new vector of activism, like ISKP, and intensify efforts to foment violence abroad.