Situation, Facts and Events
07.11.2024

New trends in terrorist tactics in Pakistan

Based on materials fr om the South Asia Counter Terrorism Portal (SATP), India

In October, a new element of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist tactic emerged in Pakistan: targeted attacks on special forces personnel, including those on leave. In October, there were three such attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, all fatal.

These incidents of targeting ‘on-leave’ SFs point to a new trend in recent months in KP. Though target killings SF personnel, particularly when they are off duty or visiting their homes, has been ongoing since 2023, when two such fatalities were recorded, there has been a sharp rise in such killing in 2024. 

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 16 SF personnel have been killed in 16 incidents of such targeted attack in the current year.
 
There is also a wider surge of attacks on SFs in the province.  According to partial data compiled by SATP, KP has recorded 324 SF fatalities in 2024 (data till October 27, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, there were 260 SF fatalities. During the whole of 2023, there were 329 such fatalities. 

In fact, with almost two months remaining in the current year, SF fatalities in 2023 threaten to be the highest in a year since 2009, when 494 such fatalities were recorded.

According to a Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) report published on September 19, 2024, as many as 337 personnel of law enforcement agencies (LEAs) were killed while 616 injured in terrorist attacks carried out by terrorist outfits in the province this year. Dera Ismail Khan suffered the largest number of SF casualties, at 63, while Bannu suffered 58, North Waziristan 50 and South Waziristan 38 fatalities. At least 29 SF personnel were killed in Bajaur, 22 in Khyber, 18 in Peshawar and 16 in the Kurram District. Eleven SF personnel each were killed in Malakand and Mardan, 10 in Kohat, eight in Dir, two in Mohmand and one in Hazara District.
 
The surge of targeted attacks against SF personnel can be attributed to the three principal factors: the United States (US)-Western withdrawal from neighbouring Afghanistan; the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 14, 2021; and finally, the collapse of ‘official talks’ between the Pakistan Government and TTP on November 28, 2022. 

The spike in violence in KP in 2023 was foreseeable, when TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali asked his fighters to resume attacks in the wake of the collapse of peace-talks.

On January 2, 2024, the Federal Ministry of Interior informed the Senate (Upper House of Parliament) that the continuous influx of TTP cadres in significant numbers, with recruitment, training and deployment of suicide bombers, in the merged Districts [districts which were part of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and now merged with KP] of KP was "cause for concern".

Significantly, when the US pulled its forces out from Afghanistan in 2021, it left behind around USD 7 billion worth of military equipment and weapons, including firearms, communications gear, and even armoured vehicles. 

On September 8, 2023, the Pakistan Foreign Office expressed concern over the "advanced weapons" being used by terrorists operating out of Afghanistan, in attacks in Pakistan, particularly on its security agencies. "These modern weapons have fallen into the hands of terrorists in Afghanistan, who are using these [weapons] to attack Pakistan and its security agencies," Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch stated.
 
Meanwhile, the TTP is now the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan, enjoying operational and logistical support from both the Afghan Taliban and factions of the Al Qaeda terrorist network. 

“The Taliban do not conceive of TTP as a terrorist group: the bonds are close, and the debt owed to TTP significant,” states the 15th report of the ISIL (Daesh) and Al-Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team, submitted to the UN Security Council. Estimating its strength at around 6,000-6,500 fighters, the report notes that TTP is now the largest among the two dozen or so such groups that enjoy freedom to manoeuvre, under the oversight of the Taliban regime. The report notes that TTP “continues to operate at significant scale in Afghanistan and to conduct terrorist operations into Pakistan from there, often utilising Afghans”. 

“TTP has intensified attacks against Pakistan, significantly increasing from 573 in 2021 to 715 in 2022 and 1,210 in 2023, with the trend continuing into 2024,” the report, updated until May 28, 2024, states. Further, a new United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report released July 31, 2024, highlighted the severe threat to Pakistan's security from TTP, noting increased collaboration between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban in cross-border terrorist attacks, primarily targeting Pakistani military posts. 

“With Taliban acquiescence, and at times support, TTP has intensified attacks inside Pakistan primarily targeting military installations,” the report from the UNSC’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning ISIL (Daish), Al-Qaeda and associate groups, noted.

Earlier on December 15, 2023, Pakistan urged a United Nations (UN) panel to investigate how TTP was acquiring modern weaponry to carry out terrorist attacks in the country. Usman Jadoon, Pakistan’s Deputy Permanent Representative, highlighted the alarming trend during a UN Security Council (UNSC) open debate on the threat posed by the diversion, illicit trafficking, and misuse of small arms and light weapons. He argued that terrorist groups like TTP acquire such weapons “from illicit arms markets or receive them from entities that want to destabilise a particular region or country.”

On September 9, 2024, frustrated with targeted killing by terrorists, Police personnel of Lakki Marwat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa staged a protest sit-in against the terrorist attacks targeting law enforcement personnel. A consultation was held at the Police lines, wh ere they presented their demands, including a call for full authority for police operations, and protection for officers. Following the discussions, they blocked the Bannu-Mianwali Road of the Indus Highway as part of their demonstration.

Further on September 11, the Bajaur District Police announced the boycott of duties for Anti-Polio Campaigns because of Police consistently being targeted and killed while protecting polio eradication teams. The announcement was made in a video clip by scores of Policemen. The 50-second clip, seen by Dawn, shows several Policemen gathered at the Police Lines in Khar, announcing their decision to boycott the vaccination drive in protest. Policemen from at least three Southern Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had already been protesting against the targeted attacks over the preceding week.

In the wake of this new development, while the terrorists were equipped with modern sophisticated weapons, including sniper rifles and thermal sensors, the provincial Police forces who stand on the first line of defence, remain ill-equipped. On October 1, 2024, the Chief Minister of KP, Ali Amin Gandapur, chaired a high-level meeting in Peshawar to discuss peace and security in the province, particularly in the merged Districts of the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and southern KP. To enhance the capabilities of Police, 122 bulletproof vehicles were allocated to former FATA Districts, PKR 7 billion was provided for the Police in the merged districts, and PKR 1 billion was released for the purchase of Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs). Additionally, 1,300 Police positions were announced for the Tank and Lakki Marwat Districts in Southern KP. Measures proposed by the Tribal Grand Jirga are also to be considered, including compensation for losses suffered by Tribal Districts’ residents.
 
 
 


Source: Институт Ближнего Востока