The ongoing violence in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces has left many government security forces dead and sparked civil unrest in both regions. The frequency and intensity of attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatist cells reflect a number of worrying trends.

First, regional experts agree that the Pakistani Taliban have consolidated their presence in various parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reducing their reliance on militant groups arriving from Afghanistan.

Second, the TTP’s efforts to secure safe havens in Pakistan may be a sign of pressure from the Afghan Taliban, who are in conflict with the Pakistani government.

Third, the TTP seeks to demoralize law enforcement agencies in the province through aggressive propaganda efforts, a strategy similar to what the Afghan Taliban used for years in Afghanistan. It is worth recalling that this ultimately led to the fall of the pro-Western government in Kabul in August 2021. The recent influx of TTP fighters into Pakistan provides the Pakistani government with an opportunity to conduct counter-terrorism operations against the group. The Pakistani Taliban’s previous strategy of maintaining temporary safe havens to avoid government detection has indeed hampered the security forces’ ability to effectively carry out counter-terrorism operations. 

Another key reason often cited by Pakistani officials for hampering effective counter-terrorism operations is the tactic of TTP fighters blending in with the civilian population. When civilian casualties occur in such cases, it immediately sparks protests against the security forces, further complicating the situation in countering the terrorist threat. 

 

The constant evolution of the TTP’s tactics and strategy also undermines the operational effectiveness of Pakistani security forces. Recent intelligence operations have failed, and counterattacks by the militants led to casualties among the security forces.

Another factor contributing to the failure of government forces is the TTP’s activity on social media. In addition to publishing their narratives, the group’s channels provide real-time updates on security forces’ movements and potential raids, allowing them to evade pursuit and stay ahead of the government. The group’s extensive use of social media has significantly undermined the operational effectiveness of government security forces.

The TTP's strategic focus is on southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, particularly its two districts of Dera Ismail Khan and Bannu. The group's leadership aims to establish territorial control. Its tactics, including attacks on checkpoints and killings of army personnel, are aimed at demoralizing government forces. TTP's subversive activities against the police include assassinations, IED attacks, and attacks on government insfrastructure.

The threat to law enforcement personnel has increased in three key districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Lakki Marwat, Bannu, and Bajaur. These areas are considered the "front lines" of the fight against the TTP. Recently, local police forces have not only abandoned their duties but have also begun to stage protests, blaming the military and intelligence services for their losses. The situation has exacerbated tensions between the police and the military, marking the first time in Pakistan’s more than two decades of fighting terrorism that law enforcement agencies have publicly protested the military’s actions. 

The recent upsurge in violence by TTP militants and Baloch separatists in Pakistan has also raised concerns beyond the region. In the past, international support in the form of material and financial aid (primarily from the United States) has played a vital role in Pakistan’s fight against terrorism. Indeed, the TTP’s top leadership was eliminated by US drone strikes rather than by large-scale offensives by the Pakistani military.

 

Given Pakistan’s geostrategic importance on the global stage, further stepping up of the TTP’s activity is likely to cause concern and potentially mobilize international aid, despite the West’s waning interest in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Besides, the situation could be affected by the upcoming change in the US President and his administration. Donald Trump’s appointed Secretary of Defense and National Security Advisor are Afghan war veterans with direct experience of interaction with the Taliban in Afghanistan. In this regard, Islamabad’s changing rhetoric, which has recently viewed the Afghan Taliban as a strategic threat rather than a strategic ally, could lead to a convergence of interests between Pakistan and the new US administration.