Situation, Facts and Events
22.12.2024
The Syrian crisis and the risks for Central Asia: an expert opinion
How can the situation currently unfolding in Syria affect Central Asia? Tajik expert Sherali Rizoen in his Telegram channel provides an analysis of the threats and opportunities for the region in connection with the latest events.
He notes that "righteous groups are reviving before our eyes and are beginning to control the territories of entire states." This precedent is especially dangerous for Central Asia, since people from this region took part in the latest military actions.
According to the expert, the situation in Syria creates a new source of risks and opportunities for the foreign policy of Central Asian countries.
He emphasizes that "there is a high probability that certain powers in our region will become more active; it is those who are the main beneficiaries of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime; and on the wave of their "inspiring march" they can become significantly more active in Central Asia. Since the "winning" and "losing" actors present in Central Asia are on different sides of the barricades, there is a high probability that their confrontation will also continue in our region."
For Taliban supporters in Central Asia, a dilemma arises: should they “love” and “justify” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)? “Any attempt by them to justify HTS is fraught with negative consequences for domestic politics,” says Sherali Rizoen.
“The armed seizure of power by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has called into question the counter-terrorism policies of some states in our region. Unfortunately, the range of risks and threats in the field of countering extremism and terrorism will be greater than before.”
He also draws parallels between the situation in Syria and the fall of the Afghan government in 2021: “Damascus, like Kabul, fell into the hands of the armed opposition in a very short time without resistance. This fact may become the basis for further reflection, and in the near future it may turn out that the powers that “lost” from the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime will themselves finance the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group.” Or they will be given the opportunity to “replay” and “get their due” in another region of the world.”
Time will tell how the situation will unfold. However, it is already obvious that Central Asia should prepare for new challenges related to the consequences of the Syrian crisis.
Source: 24.kg