Civil war scenario likely: experts on what awaits Syria

Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family arrived in Moscow, where they were granted asylum. Earlier, Assad resigned after a meeting with the Islamists who had seized the capital, and left the country. Currently, negotiations are underway in Syria between the remaining members of the government and the anti-government forces that control Damascus. MIR24.TV spoke with experts about what awaits Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Lawyer, member of the Bar Association, political scientist Artem Baghdasaryan recalls that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad decided to leave the presidential post and left the country, giving instructions to transfer power peacefully. Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali refused to leave the country and said: "we are ready to cooperate with any government that the Syrians choose.” The armed Syrian opposition, which seized the state channel, called on all opposition representatives and other citizens to preserve "state property and continue the work of the institutions of the "free Syrian state." 

"Despite the relatively peaceful rhetoric, one can hardly expect a calm unfolding of events and democratic elections in the country. The opposition forces that captured Damascus can hardly be called homogeneous, since they include radical persons, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (consisting of Kurdish units), and troops of the Syrian National Army controlled by Turkey. Given all this, a civil war scenario in Syria seems more likely, since it will be difficult for very diverse ideological opposition forces to come to a consensus.

Artem Baghdasaryan also believes that a repeat of the "Balkan scenario" is possible: the fragmentation of Syria into small states, each of which will be controlled by external patrons. One thing can be said with certainty: the events that have taken place will entail a wave of violence and bloodshed.

Expert of the International Cooperation Department of the Main Directorate of the University of Management Alexander Rudoy ​​confirms: the armed opposition that captured Damascus and currently controls Syria unites a wide variety of religious movements and includes people of different nationalities. It is led by one of the militant Islamist groups. After the rebels take Damascus, events in Syria could unfold according to one of the three main scenarios.

"First. The country will sink into chaos and civil war, as happened to Libya and partially to Iraq. The goals of the rebel groups controlling Syria are too diverse. The country is also home to many peoples of various faiths. In addition to the Sunni Arabs, who make up the majority, there are the Kurds living on the border with Turkey and in the east, the Druze living in the south, and the Alawites inhabiting the western coastal part and the cities of Tartus and Latakia. There are also many Christians in the country, residing in the large cities of Damascus and Aleppo. Naturally, all these peoples and faiths will seek to protect their interests in the new Syria and to obtain some piece of territory of the de facto divided country.

Second. The country will turn into an Islamic militarized religious state, following the example of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The opposition groups are mainly represented by radical Islamists with a certain worldview. They may rush to implement their views in practice. In this case, the first and second scenarios may merge, and a state like this will emerge in some part of the Syrian Arab Republic.

According to the third scenario, the country will go through a difficult transition period, during which government institutions will continue functioning. Then, a new government will be elected, and the opposition will hand power over to it. Then, the country will develop as a multinational, multi-confessional state. Lebanon can serve as such an example to some extent.

"The rebel leader's words suggest the possibility of such a scenario. He stated that his organization was wrongly dubed "terrorists" and asked to separate them from jihadists. According to him, Syria deserves a system of institutional governance. The new politician noted that building Syria is a grandiose project. And its organization is only part of the general dialogue, which can disappear at any moment. After capturing Damascus, the rebel leader forbade his fighters from approaching government institutions and said that they would remain under the control of the prime minister until the official transfer of power to the opposition. However, this scenario may in the future transform into the second one, reflecting the Islamic worldview of the rebel leader. Syria is facing difficult changes, its future will be determined in the near future in front of the world community, noted Alexander Rudoy, ​​an expert of the International Cooperation Department of the State University of Management.

Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Mass Communications of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Shatilov emphasizes: the defeat of the Bashar al-Assad regime will have serious and likely unfavorable consequences for the Middle East, especially from the point of view of Russia's interests. As experience shows in Iraq and Libya, the demolition of a political regime, especially a secular one, by religious fundamentalists will cause chaos, civil war and confrontation.

"Indulging religious terrorists will also lead to a surge in the similar sentiments throughout the Middle East and North Africa. This may threaten a number of relatively secular and moderate regimes, such as in Egypt. Iran will also be under attack, because it will be under pressure from the new authorities. On the other hand, Iran will continue to be "pressured by the collective efforts of the US, Turkey and Israel. And this is also a consequence of the fact that the Assad regime fell feebly, without a fight.