The leader of the radical Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, has led the overthrow of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad. Who is he, and what are his plans for the future of Syria?

A few weeks ago, his name was probably unknown to many people outside of Syria. Now, the photo of Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of the radical Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is on the front pages of the most important newspapers around the world.

 

On Sunday, December 8, a rebel alliance led by HTS captured the Syrian capital Damascus, forcing former President Bashar al-Assad to flee. Many armed groups have been involved in clashes with government forces since late November, but it was al-Julani and HTS who initiated and drove the successful offensive on Damascus. Al-Julani entered the capital as a winner and celebrated his success at the famous Umayyad Mosque. He declared the city liberated - 13 years after Assad brutally suppressed protests against the government, which led to the start of the civil war in Syria. According to Russian media, Assad and his family are now in Moscow.

Al-Julani's new image - a military uniform instead of a turban

For many years, Abu Mohammed al-Julani operated undercover, but now he appears in public and gives interviews to major foreign publications. The HTS leader has also noticeably changed his appearance - he rarely wears the jihadist turban that he has worn since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, preferring a cap and a military uniform now.

According to media reports, Ahmed al-Sharaa, which is the real name of the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was born in Saudi Arabia in the early 1980s. According to the BBC, his father worked there as an oil engineer until 1989. That same year, the family moved to Masseh, a wealthy area of Damascus. They write that al-Sharaa's father was an opponent of Bashar al-Assad and spent many years in Syrian prisons before going into exile.

Al-Sharaa studied media and media studies at Damascus University. He is believed to have developed an interest in the Islamist terrorist organization Al-Qaeda after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, and in 2003, he traveled to Iraq to join jihadists fighting US forces. In 2006, he was captured by the US military and spent five years in the Camp Bucca prison camp.

Al-Julani's Evolution: From Al-Qaeda to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

At the outbreak of the civil war in Syria in 2011, he returned to the country and headed Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, from which the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham later span off. In the United States, al-Julani has been included in the list of most wanted terrorists since 2013. In an interview with Al Jazeera, he said that Sharia law should be in effect in Syria. In May 2015, al-Julani said that, unlike the terrorist Islamic State, he was not planning any attacks against the West. He added that if Bashar al-Assad was defeated, he would not take revenge on the Alawites, a religious minority in Syria to which the Assad family belongs. When al-Julani broke with al-Qaeda, he explained that he was doing this so that the West would have no reason to attack his new organization. In January 2017, al-Julani forced rival Islamist groups operating in northwestern Syria to merge with HTS, which brought much of Idlib province under its control. HTS established a civil administration and a sort of state in the area, while continuing to fight its opponents.

At the time, local residents and human rights organizations accused Hayat Tahrir al-Sham of committing brutal acts against its opponents. The UN classified these actions as war crimes. Despite publicly distancing itself from al-Qaeda and changing its name, HTS is still considered a terrorist organization by the UN, the United States, Britain, Russia, and other countries.

What could al-Julani be planning?

Now, nearly the whole world is looking closely at Abu Mohammed al-Julani. The fact that there has been no violence against ethnic and religious minorities in the country so far is an "encouraging sign," James Dorsey, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told DW. Andreas Reinicke, the former German ambassador to Damascus, is more skeptical. HTS is still based on the ideology of al-Qaeda, so the future of Syrian Christians and Kurds is at risk, Reinicke warned in an interview with the KNA news agency. To improve his image, al-Julani has visited refugee camps in the past and led aid efforts, for instance during the devastating earthquake in Syria in 2023. Now he has assured the residents of Aleppo that they should not fear violence. Presently there are still around 20,000 Christians living in Aleppo, and tens of thousands of them have already left the city in recent years. The HTS leader also called on his fighters to ensure security in the recently captured areas of the country.

Aron Lund from the Century International research institute explained to the AFP agency that this is a good political move at the moment. "The less panic there is locally and internationally, and the more al-Julani looks like a responsible player and not a toxic jihadist extremist, the easier his task will be," Lund believes. And at the same time he clarifies: "Is he completely sincere? Of course not." However, according to the expert, it is obvious that al-Julani's current actions are "the most sensible thing to say and do at this moment."

According to the BBC, "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" adheres to a strategy of "moderate jihad", which is more pragmatic than the classic version of this ideology. Al-Julani's approach may therefore indicate that hardline jihadist movements such as ISIS and al-Qaeda are losing ground because their methods are seen as ineffective and unacceptable.