As the first quarter of the 21st century draws to a close, the world still sees raging armed conflicts destabilizing countries, regions, and even the global order. Terrorist attacks and government responses create ripple effects that not just shape national policies, but also fragment societies and radicalize their segments.

This raises the question of what the global terrorist landscape will look like in the coming year and how the existing trends will shape it further.

International terrorism will remain a pervasive threat to global stability. Groups such as the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda are exacerbating regional and global instability, while geopolitical competition is deepening the polarization of the international community.

Unless governments work together to prevent common security challenges, threat actors will exploit gaps, loopholes, and weaknesses to further destabilize the situation. In this situation, the resilience of governments in predicting and preventing threats fr om state and non-state actors will play a decisive role. 

In the digital age, special attention should be paid to the transition of terrorist activity to the online space and, as a result, the ability to attack information infrastructure, as well as the increase in the number of cyber-attacks and the expansion of propaganda and recruitment activities in the Internet space.

Predicting when and wh ere terrorists will strike is one of the most difficult tasks facing experts. Assessing the level of threat requires a comprehensive analysis of the capabilities, intentions, and operational environment, as well as the public statements and propaganda tools of terrorist groups.

This comprehensive approach enables us to understand their logic and, in some cases, recognize possible targeting. However, terrorism does not always evolve in a linear fashion: sometimes the threats that seem most obvious or urgent fail to materialize, while others that seemed to have disappeared reemerge.

Islamic State and affiliated groups 

 

In 2024, the activities of the terrorist group ISIS-Khorasan caused the greatest concern among the international community. Its militants carried out large-scale attacks in the Crocus City Hall near Moscow and the Iranian city of Kerman, killing hundreds of people. 

The age of the perpetrators of the attacks reflects an important trend, namely the radicalization of youth, which remains a pressing issue for security agencies. The presence of ISKP in Afghanistan who the Taliban movement has failed to weaken will continue to destabilize the situation in South Asia, and the terrorist threat from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army also remains significant.

The TTP directly threatens the Pakistani government and aims to overthrow it, while Baloch ethnic separatist groups continue to persecute Chinese citizens and undermine the Belt and Road Initiative megaproject. 

The TTP movement is modeled after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the self-designation of the unrecognized Taliban state – author). Presently it is increasing the intensity of armed attacks on Pakistani territory. In this context, the military has many times asked the Afghan Taliban to take action against TTP militants operating along the border, but the Afghan Taliban has rejected the requests, denying the presence of group members in the territories under their control.

ISKP operates in the tribal areas of Pakistan and Balochistan province and is increasing the intensity of attacks on the territory of Afghanistan, Pakistan and countries outside the region, including Russia, Iran and Turkey. 

ISKP is the number one threat to Afghanistan, which under the Taliban remains a pariah state and home to al-Qaeda, the TTP, and other terrorist organizations. The attacks carried out by IS militants in Dagestan and Oman in the summer of 2024 indicate that the group is expanding its geographic reach. 

This trend is likely to continue in 2025, as IS cells are again active in the Middle East and Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel region, remains a hotbed of terrorism, providing a safe haven for a number of jihadist groups linked to both al-Qaeda and IS. 

The Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimeen group is gaining ground in West Africa, with its militants carrying out a major terrorist attack in Burkina Faso in the summer of 2024, killing over 600 people.

 

The regional security situation continues to deteriorate as jihadist groups advance towards the West African coast, threatening previously stable countries such as Ghana and expanding their influence from Cameroon to Nigeria.

Al-Shabaab and ISIS threaten Somalia and the Greater Horn of Africa, with the latter also maintaining a presence in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

Middle East

The ongoing reverberations of October 7, 2023 and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria suggest that geopolitical developments in the Middle East will remain in focus in 2025.

Lebanese Hezbollah has been weakened to a degree that many could not have imagined a year ago. A massive Israeli special operation using pagers and walkie-talkies in September 2024 left more than a dozen people dead and thousands injured. And of course Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was eliminated that same month.

Yet despite its defeat, the group remains a danger, as it is highly likely to return to subversive activities. When Israel killed Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Musawi in 1992, its militants responded with attacks on Jewish targets in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

The group could again try to strike US and Israeli targets in Latin America, Africa, or elsewhere, based on perceived security vulnerabilities.

Israel’s scorched earth approach in Gaza and the resulting humanitarian catastrophe will make it easier for Hamas to recruit the next generation of militants. The group will also try to extend its influence into the West Bank, but its ability to do so is likely to be severely limited for the foreseeable future. 

However, the conflict itself has already spilled over borders, fueling protests, demonstrations, and violence abroad – in Europe, North America, and even Australia. Overall, the events of October 7, 2023, have seen a sharp rise in both Islamophobia and anti-Semitism around the world, the effects of which continue to this day. 

The regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria was well-known and predictable, but the same cannot be said for the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that seized power in the country. Unlike the Taliban, which views the West as an existential enemy, HTS seeks to strengthen a constructive dialogue with the international community. However, its adherence to a Salafi jihadist interpretation of Sharia law, its brutal treatment of ethnic and religious minorities, and its repressive gender policies demonstrate the group’s true extremist nature.

 

Conclusions

In 2025, the terrorist threat will remain global.

Extremist ideologies thriving in the Middle East, Africa and Asia are radicalizing migrant and diaspora communities in the West. In order to address this threat, intelligence, law enforcement, and security agencies must take steps towards greater cooperation and partnership, building common databases, sharing intelligence, conducting joint exercises and operations, and sharing expertise, knowledge, technology, and resources.

Governments need to strengthen their predictive analytics, with government agencies being able to identify and analyze signals to anticipate changes in threat scenarios and trends. Unless governments work together to mitigate risks across the ideological spectrum, the world will be even more vulnerable to the global terrorist threat in the future.