In the event of a forceful change of power and civil war, the Taliban will begin to wear each other down, and in this context the Islamic State terrorist group will begin to grow stronger, Andrey Serenko noted on air at NSN.

A change of power in Afghanistan can occur both peacefully or lead to a civil war within the country, which will be a big issue for Russia, said Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics, in a conversation with NSN.

Earlier, Serenko announced on his Telegram channel about a political coup and a change of leadership in Afghanistan. Citing sources, he noted that Sirajuddin Haqqani (acting Minister of Internal Affairs) will be the new head of state and leader of the Taliban movement. According to Serenko, the confrontation between the "Kandahar Taliban" and the "Kabul Taliban" (Haqqanists) seems to be ending with the victory of the latter.

Serenko told NSN that experts mainly consider two scenarios for the transfer of power. "Experts are voicing two scenarios which are fundamentally different. The first one is that the Taliban will swallow the coup, there will be no conflict between them, it will be possible to extinguish it and Haqqani will become the de facto leader of the Taliban, and perhaps even the legal one, and will be able to keep various groups of the Taliban, the Afghan elite, under control. And then it will be possible to maintain stability in the country, taking into account the factor of the dominance of the Haqqani group (the most radical wing of the Taliban, NSN notes), which may be based not just on some banal tyranny, but on an attempt to create some kind of inclusive coalition. Then the Russian Federation can try to build relations with these forces, negotiate, try to bypass the Americans somewhere, since we have not yet been able to create an alternative force, and so on. But will only work if Afghanistan remains a relatively stable country," Serenko said. 

He noted that in the case of a forceful option and a civil war, the Taliban will begin to wear each other down, against which the Islamic State (IS) will begin to strengthen. "There is a second scenario, voiced by other expert observers. According to it, the "Kandahar" group and other Taliban factions will not agree with the dominance of the Haqqani network, as a result of which a civil war within the Taliban and, accordingly, in Afghanistan is very likely. In this war, the Taliban will wear each other down, and in this context the Islamic State terrorist group will begin to grow stronger. It is possible that some Taliban groups, disappointed in their leaders, will join IS. This is a very sad prospect not just for Afghanistan, but also for the countries of the region," Serenko said.