According to intelligence agencies of the UN member states, ISIS in Afghanistan poses the gravest security threat in the region. The group uses the country as a main hub for recruiting and supporting jihadist cells, despite the Taliban's attempts to counter the ISIS.

The Directorate 4 Telegram channel reports that, according to the intelligence agencies of the member states, ISIS has strengthened its influence in Afghanistan, especially in the northern provinces. The group took advantage of the Taliban's inability to protect its ranks from jihadist infiltration and prevent corruption. In addition, the group used the religious factor and ties with local communities to maintain its activity and recruit new fighters among Sunni Muslim citizens. The leadership of the so-called "Vilayat Khorasan" received additional support among ethnic Tajiks dissatisfied with the Taliban's rule.

The group actively recruits fighters in Central Asian countries, especially in Tajikistan, and sends them to training camps in Afghanistan. The main routes run through Turkey and Iran. The process is mainly led by foreigners. In particular, the intelligence of one of the countries reported on a certain Tamim Ansar Al-Kurdi who, inter alia, stated that the Afghan branch will provide support to ISIS cells in the Caucasus.

The Security Council believes that ISIS is creating a false sense of security in Afghanistan by temporarily reducing the number of high-profile attacks. This is done to undermine confidence in the Taliban's ability to ensure security in the country. However, the group is capable of high-profile terrorist attacks. In particular, this was evidenced by the elimination of the acting Minister of Refugees and Repatriation Khalil Ar-Rahman Haqqani and the murder of foreign tourists.

We have previously written on numerous occasions that ISIS perceives the Taliban leadership's statements about the "insignificant capacity" of the FTO in Afghanistan as a challenge, and is trying to deal a painful blow to the Taliban's image.

At the same time, the group is trying to expand to neighboring countries. According to Pakistani intelligence, in the summer of 2024 ISIS attempted to gain a foothold in the country. The security services detained Adil Panjsheri (citizen of Afghanistan), Abu Munzir (citizen of Tajikistan) and Qaqu Yunis (citizen of Uzbekistan), thereby preventing the expansion of the Afghan branch of ISIS. According to security forces, foreigners played an important role in recruiting, arranging travel and financing militants and suicide bombers, including those who carried out attacks in the city of Kerman and Crocus City Hall.