Global terrorism has shifted its focus to Africa: more than half of its victims now fall in former French colonies. What are the reasons?

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) indicates a sharp increase in terrorist activity in the Sahel countries. Several governments in this region have recently sought to completely free themselves from their post-colonial dependence on France.

The Black Book of Terror

In 2024, more than 50% of all deaths from terrorist attacks occurred in the Sahel countries. 16 of the 20 deadliest terrorist attacks in the world also took place in this region. The largest terrorist attack occurred in July 2024 in the Tahoua region of Niger, when 237 people were killed. Burkina Faso suffered the most: it had the largest number of deaths from terrorism globally, accounting for 20% of all victims of terrorist attacks. The Sahel has seen an unprecedented rise in the number of deaths from terrorism. The number has increased by a factor of 30 since 2007. The region has become the new epicentre of international terrorism, replacing the previous centres of the Middle East and North Africa. Most of the Sahel countries were formerly part of the French colonial empire.

Sahel - a war zone

The Islamic State (IS), Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahideen (HSM) are listed as the largest terrorist organisations in Africa in the IEP report. These groups, along with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), are among the leaders of global terrorism. In 2024, the activity of these four organisations kept increasing, and the number of people killed by them grew by 11%. The largest number of victims belongs to ISIS, which killed 1,805 people in 22 countries last year alone. At the same time, the activity of Boko Haram has intensified, making it the deadliest group in Nigeria in 2024. At the same time, the activity of its rival, the Islamic State of West Africa, has declined. In the Sahel, the JNIM retains the greatest influence, controlling large areas, especially in Mali, and it has strengthened its position in a number of local communities. The organization declares that it fights against the oppression of Muslims, against foreign occupation and for the establishment of Islamic rule. According to the IEP, 38% of JNIM victims are civilians. In 2024, in the capital of Mali, Bamako, JNIM militants attacked a military academy and an airbase, killing 60 servicemen.

 

The region has also seen a noticeable strengthening of ISIS, which is increasingly moving its activities there from the Middle East and North Africa. According to a UN panel of experts, in 2023, ISIS doubled the territory it controls in Mali. At the same time, the number of victims killed by unidentified armed groups is growing. In 2024, the level of terrorism in the Sahel was almost ten times higher than in 2019. Niger became an anti-record holder: it is here that the highest number of deaths from terrorist attacks in the world was recorded - 94%. In Chad, the increase in deaths from terrorism in a year was 80%, which was the highest figure for the country in the entire history of observations. Back in 2007, the Sahel region accounted for only 1% of all deaths from terrorism in the world. A sharp surge started in 2012, after the fall of the Gaddafi regime in Libya, when former Tuareg fighters from his army took part in the Mali uprising. This process has triggered destabilization in several countries in the region at once - Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger and Chad.

The next round of escalation began in 2021-2022 and is still ongoing. Since 1997, 25,000 people have been killed by terrorists in the Sahel countries, 3,385 of which were killed in 2024 alone. Burkina Faso has been the country most affected by terrorism in the world for the second year in a row. What are the reasons?

 

The main causes of violence in the region are poverty, the heavy legacy of French colonialism and ongoing exploitation by imperialist powers. The IEP report and a number of other analytical materials also point to the weakness of state institutions, climate and environmental problems. In addition, the Sahel is an important transit route for cocaine from South America to Europe - the struggle for control over this route became a factor affecting the Tuareg uprising in Mali. The situation is also exacerbated by internal contradictions between the center and the provinces, between farmers and herders, between ethnic groups. In Mali, in particular, it is the conflict between the Dogon, Fulani and Bambara, in Burkina Faso - between the Mossi and Fulani. Not only radical organizations are involved in the armed confrontation, but tribal militias and self-defense units as well. 

In general, in the regions of Africa south of the Sahel, despite similar conditions, in 2024 the number of deaths from terrorist attacks decreased by 5%. In a number of African states, terrorism is completely absent. But it is Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which made a sharp turn from post-colonial dependence, that found themselves at the epicenter of attacks by international terrorism. The latest surge coincided with the military regimes speaking out about sovereignty and liberation from external influence rising to power. Is this a coincidence? Western analysts attribute the increase in terror to the withdrawal of French troops and UN contingents, and in the case of Niger, also withdrawal of the American ones. However, it was the ineffectiveness of the French military mission that was one of the reasons for its expulsion from the Sahel. Regional leaders are increasingly declaring their desire for complete independence. The IEP report acknowledges that antipathy towards France is growing in the region: 59% of Malians have a negative attitude towards the former metropolis. Similar trends are observed in Burkina Faso, the Ivory Coast, Guinea, Benin, Togo, Senegal and Mauritania. In the context of declining trust in Europe, sympathy for Russia and the United States is growing, which also reflects tectonic shifts in the geopolitical preferences of the region's population.

 

Gold and Blood

In today’s world, competition for natural resources is growing dramatically, and this rivalry is becoming one of the key causes of growing conflicts. This is especially noticeable in Africa, one of the richest resource regions on the planet. In 2012, a large gold vein was discovered in Sudan, covering a significant part of the Sahel. Timewise, it coincided with the beginning of the escalation of terrorist violence in the region. 

Radical groups need funding to operate, and some international corporations do not hesitate to use illegally mined or smuggled gold, which brings huge profits. Terrorist attacks weaken state control, including control over national natural resources. The groups themselves, as a rule, are not involved in mining, but they collect unofficial taxes from gold miners. “Gold plays a central role in the development of conflicts in some of these areas,” the IEP report emphasizes. Since 2018, attacks on artisanal gold mining areas have increased sharply in Burkina Faso. The areas of heightened terrorist activity in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger largely coincide with the map of gold deposits. In January 2025, the Malian authorities accused the Canadian company Barrick Gold, one of the world's largest players in the industry, of failing to meet its obligations and confiscated three tons of gold. 

The Sahel is also rich in rare earth metals, the demand for which has increased sharply amid the global transition to "green energy". A real race has unfolded in the region for access to these resources. Niger, for example, ranks seventh in the world in uranium production. For many years, French companies received a pound of uranium at a price of $ 11, while on the market it was sold for between $ 56 and $ 140. At the same time, 40% of France's nuclear power plants were fueled by Niger's uranium, while only 20% of Niger's population had access to electricity. Today, the country's new military regime is trying to change this unfair model. Coincidentally or not, in 2024, Niger became the country with the highest number of military personnel killed by terrorists - 499 people.

In this context, a number of Sahel states increasingly see investment proposals from China and other countries in the mining sector as more profitable. In Mali, China has already opened a lithium processing plant and received licenses to explore for gold, copper, nickel and other strategic resources.

International terrorism in the region is also fueled by global geopolitical conflicts. The confrontation between Ukraine and Russia is also reflected in the Sahel. For example, Ukrainian military intelligence declared support for the Tuareg rebels, who carried out a major operation against the Russian "Africa Corps" in Mali. After the Syrian campaign, the airbase in the Malian capital of Bamako, which was already attacked by JNIM militants in September 2024, has acquired special significance for Russia.

But there is also good news. Over the past year, Burkina Faso has recorded a significant decrease in terrorist activity: the number of attacks has decreased by 57%, and the death toll by 21%. The government of Captain Ibrahim Traore took decisive measures in the security area after the tragic events of August 2024, when JNIM militants killed between 200 and 600 people in the village of Barsalogho - among them civilians, soldiers and members of the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland militia, including women and children. Since then, terrorist activity in the country has sharply declined. 

As part of its Global Security Initiative, China has pledged to spend 1 billion yuan (about $136 million) to train 7,000 troops and police to ensure stability on the African continent. Ultimately, only coordinated international efforts and strengthened local institutions can put an end to the growing violence and hatred in Africa and around the world.