After nearly six years of pressure fr om local and international organisations, the Guardians of Religion (Huras al-Din), al-Qaida's Syrian branch, announced its dissolution on 28 January, marking the public end of one of al-Qaida's most prominent branches in the world. However, this raises the question of al-Qaeda's future in Syria. 

Al-Qaeda's public emergence in Syria began after the conflict between Jebhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State (IS). In April 2013, Jebhat al-Nusra declared its affiliation with al-Qaeda, which is considered the parent organisation of both Jebhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State. Al-Qaeda's emergence in Syria began in late 2011 when its members began infiltrating the country under the slogan “Support the people of the Levant.”

Dr Azzam al-Qassir, a researcher specialising in the study of Islamist movements and the transformation of jihadist Salafism, confirmed that the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion was a positive step, as its external links would have continued to cause problems and difficulties in the future. However, it should be noted that the Religion Guards never had enough power to pose a serious threat to security and stability, due to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's (HTS) control over the organisation and awareness of its movements and spread.

According to al-Qassir, now the situation has changed: the Religious Guards no longer serve any purpose; rather, their existence has become a burden on the current administration, which is busy dealing with important tasks such as improving communication and coordination with external parties and guaranteeing its ability to control the situation in Syria after Assad's departure so that Syria does not become a launching pad for operations that could threaten international peace.

Previously, the presence of the Guardians of Religion indirectly helped the HTS by creating an image of a less radical organisation than others to the outside world and acting as a guarantor against the spread of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Today, according to al-Qassir, “this need has disappeared.”

Hassan Abu Haniyeh, an expert on jihadist groups, believes that the announcement of the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion does not mean the end of al-Qaeda in Syria. The decision was made in accordance with the organisation's governing centre in Khorasan (Afghanistan and Pakistan). Abu Haniyeh clarified that al-Qaeda's project in Syria will continue and it remains an open question whether the Guardians of Religion will position itself in Syria from a security perspective or integrate with the new administration.

As for how the al-Qaeda project will evolve, Abu Haniyeh suggested that its members may go into a state of wait-and-see, noting that the organisation in its dissolution statement called for not laying down arms, which creates a dilemma for the new leadership: the Religious Guardians have not abandoned their vision of maintaining their goals, but “due to changing circumstances, they will certainly reconsider their approach while waiting for the situation to evolve. The Syrians still have a lot of work to do and the security and military situation remains fragile (stability is fragile).”

The jihadist situation in Syria will resemble the Taliban's presence in Afghanistan, meaning that al-Qaeda will exist, but not as an official organisation, “but rather as an invisible project”, which was mentioned in the dissolution statement, according to Abu Haniyeh's estimation.

 

In its statement announcing the dissolution, the Guardians of Religion organisation said: “In light of these events in the Levant and by decision of the emirs from al-Qaeda's high command, we announce to our Muslim people and Sunnis in the Levant the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion organisation, an al-Qaeda branch in Syria.” The organisation attributed its dissolution to recent developments in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024 as a result of Containment of Aggression Operation launched by the HTS Department of Military Operations on 27 November 2024.

The statement on the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion included “advice” and promises based on the organisation's literature from its parent organisation al-Qaeda, particularly relating to future battles. The statement gave “advice to the nobles of the Levant” and those now in power to “establish religion and impose Sharia” and to keep arms in the hands of “Sunnis in the Levant so that the people remain armed and are not enslaved by a tyrant or fall prey to an occupier.”

The organisation stated: “We advise Sunnis in the Levant not to lay down their arms and prepare for the upcoming stages that our prophet Mohammed predicted. The Levant is the land of great battles, the graveyard of tyrants and colonisers, and the camp of Muslims in their struggle against the Jews and their allies among the enemies of the faith.”

The organisation confirmed that it remains ready “to respond to any call for support and help in any part of Muslim lands (...) and we will preserve our religious foundations without change, amendment or weakening; establishing religion, supporting the oppressed and preserving the blood of Muslims are among our main foundations to which we owe Allah.”

According to Hassan Abu Haniyeh, the decision to disband the Guardians of Religion was a “goodwill gesture” towards Syria's new leadership, “to remove any excuse to fight (against the Guardians of Religion), because the American terms for (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) are tough on fighting (Islamic State) and (al-Qaeda), so they want to at least give (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) a chance.” The prospects for this move will depend on the shape and nature of the political system in Syria, and as Abu Haniyeh notes, there will be a reshuffle one way or another.

Since its establishment in Syria in 2018, the Guardians of Religion organisation has not controlled any territory and has mainly used light small arms, mortars and rockets in its attacks on Syrian regime. The decline of their influence was due to pressure from the HTS on its leaders and members, especially after the signing of the Moscow Agreement on 5 March 2020, which prohibited the HTS from conducting any military operations except within the framework of the al-Fatah al-Mubin operational headquarters (which included several groups alongside the HTS).

In June 2020, the HTS thwarted an attempt by the Guardians of Religion and other jihadist groups, most of which adhere to al-Qaeda ideology, to unite under the Resilience Operational Headquarters. The organisation faced further pressure from the International Coalition, which monitored the movements of its leaders and carried out several airstrikes that killed several commanders. Notable leaders killed in the airstrikes include Khaled al-Arouri, aka ‘Abu al-Qassam the Jordanian” (a former military commander and ‘Abu Abd al-Rahman the Meccan” and ‘Abu Mohammed the Sudanese” (two influential clerics within the organisation), as well as several al-Qaeda leaders eliminated in coalition strikes, most notably ‘Abu Firas the Syrian” in 2016 and ‘Abu al-Khair the Egyptian” in 2017, prior to the establishment of the Guardians of Religion.

During the fighting in the course of Operation Containment of Aggression, which led to the fall of the Assad regime, there was no sign of the organisation's involvement in the fighting. Abu Haniyeh explained that al-Qaeda's presence in Syria is linked to the establishment of al-Qaeda's project in the Levant to achieve its main goal of ‘confronting the United States and Israel (crusaders and Jews),” which is the founding principle laid down by the organisation's founder and leader Osama bin Laden, namely ‘a global front to fight the Jews and crusaders.”

Abu Haniyeh described Syria as ‘the jewel in the crown of the confrontation with Israel” for al-Qaeda in line with the organisation's ideology, noting that the disbanding of the Guardians of Religion is not final and that if circumstances change, the group could assert itself and its presence in some form or join the Islamic State. Even with the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion, Al-Qaeda will not disappear, as its core project is ultimately linked to the Levant and the Palestinian issue, and is therefore subject to internal, regional and international transformations and dynamics.

After the events of the Arab Spring, al-Qaeda adopted a strategy of creating local jihadist groups that follow its principles. This was evident in the Ansar al-Sharia project, of which Jebhat al-Nusra is a part, which, according to Abu Haniyeh, was focused on local issues (local jihad) but did not neglect global issues (global jihad).

‘Al-Qaeda also emphasised local and global aspects, following the instructions of its former leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in 2014. The organisation adhered to the principle of fighting primarily against a distant enemy - the United States, the West and Israel - while focusing on local affairs. However, local dynamics took over and al-Qaeda began to operate in an ‘intermediate” format, representing a ‘middle school” of jihadist groups, according to Abu Haniyeh's categorisation, which includes:

Local national school: this school is integrated into a local structure based on a commitment to the nation-state and national borders, represented first by the Taliban and then by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It has its roots in jihadist movements that were originally local.

Middle (intermediate) school: operates both locally and globally, and localised activities may be limited by national boundaries. Some branches may operate both locally and globally, such as the al-Qaeda branch in Yemen.

A school that combines the local and the global ones: this school is represented by the Islamic State group.

Abu Haniyeh noted that the Islamic State will start a realignment in Syria, trying to attract fighters either from disaffected elements of HTS because of the new administration's actions or from al-Qaeda. This will lead to the emergence of a strong local branch of the Islamic State in Syria.

After the elimination of the group's last strongholds in Syrian towns and villages in March 2019 (the village of al-Baghouz in eastern Deir ez-Zor), ‘Islamic State” cells have moved into the Syrian desert, which has become a launching point for them to attack the Democratic Syrian Forces (SDF) or the former regime, as the territories under their control border the Syrian desert.

After the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, the territories controlled by the new administration bordered the desert, which could facilitate attacks by ‘Islamic State” cells against the new administration, especially given the historical enmity between ‘Islamic State” and other groups that have recently joined the Syrian Ministry of Defence.

In August 2023, the Islamic State accused Hayat Tahrir al-Sham of killing its fourth leader, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Quraishi, during clashes in Idlib, and then handing over his body to Turkish intelligence and arresting the group's spokesman Abu Omar al-Muhajir. It should be added that the elimination of the first emir of IS Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Idlib by the Americans also happened with the help of the HTS.

‘Islamic State” threatened the interim government in Damascus in a video published on 24 January this year in case if it applies the laws and charter of the United Nations in peacetime and wartime.

In the statement, the Guardians of Religion described the military groups involved in Operation Containment of Aggression, which toppled the Assad regime, as ‘pawns” in the hands of Turkey and other states, claiming they were ‘waging an indirect war” between ‘Turkish pawns and Iranian weapons” to achieve better results at the negotiating table, such as in Astana, wh ere ‘the future of Syria is being decided, the free future that the rebels seek.”