Situation, Facts and Events
29.04.2025
Terrorist groups and modern radicalization tools
The terrorist organization Islamic State (IS) has emerged as one of the most serious threats to many regions, regardless of the power status of states. For example, IS has established a strong foothold in the Sahel region, advancing the goals of radicalizing the local population and eventually establishing a “caliphate.” The ongoing social and political instability in the region has created an environment where the group can easily exploit vulnerabilities and recruit potential supporters.
Far more misunderstood, however, is how IS manages to radicalize people fr om more stable political societies. This raises the important question of how technology allows terrorist groups to develop their propaganda machine, making radicalization rapid and pervasive. A multifaceted approach is needed to counter this threat. To this end, it is proposed to assess the organizational influence, network reach and operational capabilities of the IS using social media content analysis.
A comparative assessment of the activities of IS and other regional terrorist groups in the online space will allow to analyse the interconnectedness and competition of various terrorist organisations. Analysis of the social media will allow to identify key actors (individuals or online platforms) and links in the chain, helping understand strengths and vulnerabilities of terrorist networks in the online space.
At this stage, it is important to analyse the online tactics of radical groups that exist and operate in the Central and South Asian region.
The IS-Khorasan Province (ISKP) terrorist group, which is one of the most active units of the IS, uses a multilingual approach to disseminate narratives, which allows it to reach far beyond the region. This is indicated by such aspects of the group's tactics as, for example, the recruitment of persons of Tajik origin to organize a terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall near Moscow and persons of Indian origin to attack the Sikh Gurdwara temple in Kabul. Thus, the terrorist group's activity in the online space has demonstrated that its geographic reach is expanding not by consolidating its influence through physical presence on the ground, but through its activity in cyberspace.
The social media analysis aimed to understand how communication is evolving in the current online space. It has been used to establish the current nature and dynamics of the relationships between the various branches of the Islamic State (in Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan), as well as other major regional terrorist networks, including al-Qaeda, the Haqqani Network, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, and Lashkar-e-Taiba. In order to better understand the nature of the relationships and analyse the impact of these organisations on regional dynamics, we will divide them into three groups: Group A, Group B and Individual States.
Group A includes the core of the Islamic State, as well as its subdivisions operating in Central and South Asia - ISKP, IS-Pakistan and IS-Hind.
Group B includes the following terrorist organizations: Al-Qaida, Haqqani Network, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Taiba
The Individual States group will include Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Group A has advanced cyber capabilities, a multilingual strategy, and highly skilled IT professionals working to curate and disseminate propaganda materials. In addition, the organizations included in this group are not just focused on local issues, and decentralization through technology helps them expand intangibly, shaping regional geopolitics.
Group B focuses on a regional agenda that is predominantly political in nature. The TTP and Lashkar-e-Taiba are anti-government organizations, while the Haqqani Network is an integral part of the Taliban and is currently in the shadows. Al-Qaida is the only international terrorist organization among the Group B actors, but its activities in the region are significantly limited now, including due to international pressure on the Taliban. Nevertheless, Al-Qaida is also developing a decentralization strategy, adopting the methods used by IS because of the availability of modern technology. To date, al-Qaeda, the TTP, and the Haqqani Network have maintained close contacts with the Taliban interim government.
Putting Afghanistan and Pakistan in a separate group of states is also due to their influence on regional dynamics. The reason for this is the growing confrontation between Kabul and Islamabad amidst the latter's accusations that the Taliban are sheltering TTP fighters in border areas, which the Taliban strongly deny. An additional point is that during the Afghan Taliban insurgency, the Haqqani Network received support fr om Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). In an attempt to ease tensions and stop the TTP's increasing attacks in Pakistan, senior Pakistani officials held a series of meetings with Taliban representatives in Islamabad. However, the TTP's continued aggression against Pakistani government forces, despite assurances from the Taliban, is undermining confidence in the Afghan de facto government, further aggravating its already massive problems.
Islamic State foreign terrorist organization is actively adopting advanced technological innovations, including artificial intelligence and media tools such as deepfake, to manipulate the audience. “Al-Qaeda is in second place in terms of technological capabilities. It is important to note that despite the low activity of the “core” of the organization, activities of its branches in Africa and the Indian subcontinent deserve close attention. Nevertheless, the most dangerous terrorist organization today is undoubtedly IS. It is noteworthy that its Afghan-Pakistani subdivision IS-Khorasan Province (banned in Russia) stands apart, not joining alliances with any other groups. The alleged exception is Lashkar-e-Jhangvi in Balochistan, Pakistan.
The Taliban's interim government is fighting ISKP cells throughout Afghanistan, but the group has been able to increase its supporters through online propaganda. The latest technology has given it the greatest advantage in terms of decentralization and easy outreach to specific groups of individuals using encryption in social media.
It should be noted that the Taliban interim government faces three pressing challenges: aggression from ISKP, strained relations with Pakistan, and lack of international recognition. The Taliban's efforts to build diplomatic ties with countries that ISKP views as enemies of Islam have encouraged the group to spread increasingly aggressive anti-Taliban rhetoric online.
In addition to the Al-Azaim media foundation, ISKP has another efficient tool for online propaganda - an extremist periodical known as the Voice of Khorasan. It has been instrumental in spreading the group's rhetoric in English globally. IS recently re-launched its official radio station, Al-Bayan, which broadcasts conversations between representatives of its cells and potential supporters or radicalized individuals who have already pledged allegiance to the organization.
The IS's current strategy focuses on consolidating its influence through decentralization. Drivers of this process include widespread adoption of modern technology, such as artificial intelligence and algorithms in chatbots. Using these tools, the organization became able to quickly adapt to changing circumstances while continuing to recruit supporters and plan subversive activities. Analysts question the nature of the ties between recruiters and the terrorist organization - whether they are informal or based on deep trust. Understanding this could potentially help intelligence agencies develop effective countermeasures.
It is worth noting that ISKP poses a serious security challenge to the Central Asian region, as well as several other countries outside the region, including the United States and Russia. The group gains a strategic advantage by recruiting disillusioned members of other terrorist groups and using information about the vulnerabilities of its adversaries to attract supporters.
Today, the focus of counterterrorism has shifted to the borderless online space, wh ere the weapon of preference is rhetoric that transcends national borders and theaters of war. This trend requires governments to adopt mirror strategies in the virtual space, wh ere encrypted messages and propaganda materials spread at huge speed. However, the responsibility in this situation does not lie solely with governments: technology companies must become more active, too, by creating predictive algorithms, monitoring user activity and developing artificial intelligence-based countermeasures to combat the shadow networks of terrorist organizations.
Technology companies should actively analyse social media, as it will help track loopholes and communication channels within specific terrorist networks. More detailed content analysis will help predict the emergence of new code words or phrases used by terrorist groups in algorithms to direct vulnerable individuals who may be recruited.
Regional intelligence services and government agencies should make countering ISKP one of their priorities, as its continued activity will fuel instability and geopolitical tensions affecting not just the security of the region, but the global environment.
Combating terrorist groups such as ISKP and al-Qaeda requires seamless integration of advanced technology, reliable intelligence, and international cooperation. Ignoring their influence in the online space will inevitably lead to disastrous consequences.
Source: Институт Ближнего Востока