On April 9, the American newspaper The New York Times reported that, according to representatives of the UN and the US, the Islamic State (IS) group had resumed its activities in Syria, regained strength, attracted new fighters, and increased the frequency of attacks, aggravating the risk of instability in the country. The newspaper noted that although the Islamic State is no longer as powerful as it was ten years ago, when it controlled large areas in Syria and Iraq, experts warn that it may find a way to free thousands of its experienced fighters held in prisons run by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Amid US demands and pressure fr om Turkey aimed at fighting IS in Syria, the new Syrian administration has set up an operations staff jointly with Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey to counter the group, but has made no visible progress on the issue, while the group has attempted to carry out attacks deep inside Syria following the fall of the Assad regime.

Alongside the military operations that led to the fall of the Assad regime, IS activities were among the priorities of the US administration, which led the International Coalition. After the fall of the Assad regime, air strikes were repeatedly carried out against targets linked to the group, which was attempting to take advantage of the chaos in Syria.

 According to the leader of the Free Syrian Army Salem Turki al-Antari, Islamic State groups sought to take advantage of the departure of the ousted regime's forces from the central region and seize weapons and equipment left behind by the ousted regime, allied militias, and Russian troops, prompting the Free Syrian Army to take measures to prevent this.

On January 11, the General Intelligence Service of the new Syrian administration announced that it had foiled an attempt to detonate an improvised explosive device in the tomb of Sayyida Zainab in the Syrian capital Damascus. This was the first terrorist attack linked to the Islamic State group since the fall of the regime.

Abdul Rahman al-Haj, a researcher specializing in jihadist groups, believes that the Syrian Badia is still being used as an operational planning center for the Islamic State and is a vital region for its activities. The instability in Syria is affecting camps, detention centers, and other facilities in the northeastern part of the country, whereas 42,500 people, some of whom are believed to be affiliated with the Islamic State group, remain in detention. They include 17,700 Iraqi nationals, 16,200 Syrian nationals, and 8,600 nationals of other countries.

He noted that the withdrawal of the United States troops could increase the chances of the Islamic State surviving for a longer period, but this would not lead to its resurgence in Syria or control over territories that would allow it to establish authority and form an executive body.

The Turkish presence in the Syrian province of Badia could help prevent the spread of the Islamic State and compensate for the absence of the Americans, but the group can only be eradicated if the Syrian Democratic Forces are completely withdrawn from the areas they control east of the Euphrates River, as this is the source of discontent that provides the Islamic State with the propaganda it needs to recruit new members, according to al-Haj.

The defense minister of the interim government in Damascus Murhaf Abu Kasra said in an interview that the threat posed by the Islamic State remains present in Syria. He stressed that the ministry continues to fight it with all means at its disposal, noting coordination with the Ministry of the Interior. On January 27, a group of militants from local factions previously active in Deraa arrested Islamic State leader Ata al-Hariri and handed him over to the General Intelligence Service in the town of Kafr Shams in the western countryside of Deraa. Ata al-Hariri is from the town of Busra al-Hariri in the eastern countryside of Deraa. He is also known as Ata al-Shami. He is the “emir of the eastern sector” who assumed this position after the death of the previous leader of the group, Abu Tariq al-Subahi.

Jihadist group researcher Orabi Orabi believes that the Islamic State is currently at a stage wh ere it needs internal cohesion, especially in terms of recruiting new members in Syria and abroad, with Syria being a secondary priority compared to Africa and, possibly, Iraq at a later stage. He notes that the Islamic State has ambitions but lacks the tools to achieve them.

The Islamic State has a history of conflict with warring factions in Syria, particularly Jabhat al-Nusra (presently Ha’y’at Tahrir al-Sham) and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), who is presently the interim president of the country. Ha’y’at Tahrir al-Sham has severed ties with jihadist organizations and changed its rhetoric from extremist to moderate. The Islamic State is fundamentally opposed to Jabhat al-Nusra and all opposition groups, especially the Free Syrian Army. Thus, this threat adds nothing new in terms of the Islamic State itself, but it may encourage jihadists in the region to try to attack the state and possibly focus on attacking the leadership of the new administration.

According to the researcher, this new momentum is driven more by external factors than by internal motivations within the Islamic State, which clearly indicates that its ability to carry out operations has been significantly reduced. He emphasized that the organization is currently fighting for survival and knows that it is facing an enemy that could completely end its existence in Syria.