Assessments of Terrorism and Extremism Trends in Punjab Province of Pakistan
According to the experts of the South Asia Counter Terrorism Portal (SATP), the situation in Pakistani Punjab is still tense, but so far there is no significant escalation trend.
Two Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officers working for the Punjab Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) were shot dead by a terrorist at a roadside hotel on the national highway near Piroval on January 3, 2023. On January 4, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the murders. Interestingly, Lashkar-e-Khorasan, an al-Qaeda-linked (banned in Russia) organization, also claimed responsibility for the assault.
Although 2023 thus started on a buoyant note, the province recorded the lowest number of terrorism-related deaths in 2022. According to fragmented data collected by SATP, Punjab recorded a total of 11 terrorism-related deaths in 2022, including 10 civilians and one terrorist, compared to 20 deaths, including 9 civilians, 6 terrorists and 5 security forces staff (SF) in 2021.
| Years | Civilians | SFs | Militants | Not Specified | Total |
| 2000 | 36 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 43 |
| 2001 | 51 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 64 |
| 2002 | 36 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 87 |
| 2003 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23 |
| 2004 | 92 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 105 |
| 2005 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 |
| 2006 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 2007 | 76 | 19 | 14 | 30 | 139 |
| 2008 | 152 | 33 | 11 | 15 | 211 |
| 2009 | 267 | 69 | 40 | 16 | 392 |
| 2010 | 296 | 17 | 15 | 0 | 328 |
| 2011 | 107 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 130 |
| 2012 | 58 | 28 | 23 | 0 | 111 |
| 2013 | 61 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 72 |
| 2014 | 89 | 16 | 31 | 0 | 138 |
| 2015 | 90 | 7 | 74 | 2 | 173 |
| 2016 | 83 | 21 | 151 | 0 | 255 |
| 2017 | 33 | 31 | 104 | 0 | 168 |
| 2018 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 36 |
| 2019 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| 2020 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| 2021 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| 2022 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| 2023 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total** | 1616 | 299 | 569 | 95 | 2597 |
While the total death toll in 2022 decreased by 45% compared to 2021, the number of civilian deaths increased, even if by just one victim.
However, in 2022, the number of terrorism-related incidents has increased significantly. There were 83 terrorism-related incidents in 2022, compared to 31 in 2021. This is the largest number of such incidents since 2017, when 99 incidents were recorded. On the other hand, the number of major homicide incidents (each of which killed three or more people) fell from 5 to 2, and as a result the number of deaths decreased from 15 to six.
On January 3, 2023, the Punjab CTD released its 2022 annual budget performance report, which recorded 1,225 intelligence operations carried out throughout the province, leading to the arrest of 246 terrorists.
The Punjab Investigation Unit of the CTD registered 205 cases of terrorism. The Punjab police seized 64.36 kilograms of explosives, 48 hand grenades, 253 detonators, seven batteries and 215 meters of cord, three machine guns, 40 pistols, 324 rounds of ammunition and three machine gun magazines from the terrorists.
The release added that in 2022, CTD Punjab's operational unit added 105 suspects and 354 madrasahs to the Fourth List under the Anti-Terrorism Act 1997.
While the level of terrorist activity in Punjab has decreased dramatically, widespread radicalization persists, creating a foundation that terrorist groups can exploit in favourable circumstances. The killing of two ISI employees at the very beginning of the year is a clear indication that the terrorists have not abandoned their goals, and the profile of the targets in this incident highlights the vulnerability of the state.