Situation, Facts and Events
05.04.2023

American experts speak about the growth of the terrorist threat from the Islamic State in Afghanistan

In its current state, the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (IS-K) will be able to conduct external operations “virtually without warning” in less than six months, Commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Army General Michael Kurilla said, addressing the US Senate in March this year.

 

Speaking about the ability of ISIS to attack Europe or Asia, in particular, General Kurilla explained that it would be more difficult for the group to attack US homeland. However, based on recent IS propaganda, the US remains targeted by a jihadist group that recently threatened to carry out a 9/11-style attack on the United States.

 

Since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, US counterterrorism analysts have warned of growing IS capabilities, especially in light of US troop withdrawal and limited intelligence resources in the areas where IS and other terrorist groups operate.

 

While US President Joe Biden has tried to reassure the American public by emphasizing the US military's ability to deliver “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism strikes, there are still concerns that without US involvement there are likely to be significant intelligence gaps in the absence of troops in Afghanistan, especially with the rapidly changing type of threats involving multiple states and interests.

 

A US drone strike successfully eliminated the long-time al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in July 2022, and the operation was a publicity stunt for the Biden administration serving as proof of the effectiveness of their over-the-horizon threat-eliminating approach. However, the strike remains the only confirmed US remote operation since the withdrawal, and it remains to be seen whether the United States can effectively contain the growing threat of jihad in Afghanistan at a distance.

 

Over the past year, IS has diversified its targets in Afghanistan by attacking Pakistani, Chinese and Russian assets inside the country.

 

After COVID-19 “artificially suppressed” terrorist activity in the first half of 2021, there was a significant spike in IS attacks later that year, according to a report by the ISIL (Da'esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee's Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which is responsible for reporting on activities of the Islamic State. In the period fr om August to December 2021, IS carried out 152 attacks in 16 provinces, compared to 20 attacks in 5 provinces during the same period in 2020.

 

At the same time, Afghanistan saw a 10% increase in “conflict-related security incidents and civilian casualties” in the last months of 2022 compared to the same period last year, and there has been a decline in IS attacks.

 

According to the February report of the UN Secretary-General on Afghanistan, the number of IS attacks in the country has decreased fr om 53 in 7 provinces to 16 in 4 provinces. However, IS remains an extremely powerful threat that is presently underestimated. At the end of 2021, the human rights organization Human Rights Watch qualified the IS-K attack on Afghanistan's religious minority, the Hazara Shia Muslims, as a crime against humanity.

 

The group's attacks in Afghanistan serve as both an important source of IS propaganda and a means to embarrass the Taliban by demonstrating the inability of the de facto Taliban government to stabilize Afghanistan and protect both its internal and external interests.

 

Just last week, IS-K reported a suicide attack targeting employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the second IS-K attack against that target since January.

 

Around the globe, the Islamic State is allocating more resources to its affiliates in Afghanistan and parts of Africa, especially as its core group is under heavy attack in Syria, while some previously prominent “franchises” keep growing weaker, for example, in Southeast Asia, Libya and Egypt.

 

After several IS leaders were eliminated in US raids in 2022, the IS core is likely to intensify its contacts with IS-K to assist it in capacity building, expanding recruitment of new members, and promoting alleged successes through increased propaganda.

 

Successful recruiting in Afghanistan and across the region could bolster IS forces, creating more problems for the Taliban, who are struggling to conduct counterinsurgency operations in the country. Continued instability across the border in Pakistan, wh ere the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or the Pakistani Taliban, continue their insurgency against the authorities, will also have a negative impact on the security situation in Afghanistan.

 

Two decades after the US invasion, the situation in Afghanistan appears to have come full circle, with the Taliban back in power, heading an increasingly fragile state plagued by terrorism and the vested interests of various regional powers.

 

Key conclusions:

 

- US CENTCOM Commander Army General Michael suggested that in its current state, IS-K would be able to start external operations in about six months.

 

- Since the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, counterterrorism analysts have warned of a growing threat to IS, especially in light of US troop withdrawals and limited intelligence resources in the areas wh ere IS and other terrorist groups operate.

 

- Over the past year, ISIS has diversified its targets in Afghanistan by attacking Pakistani, Chinese and Russian assets inside the country.

 

- Around the globe, the Islamic State is allocating more resources to its affiliates in Afghanistan and parts of Africa, especially as its core group is under heavy attack in Syria, while some previously prominent “franchises” keep growing weaker, for example, in Southeast Asia, Libya and Egypt

 


Source: Институт Ближнего Востока