Situation, Facts and Events
08.09.2022
On the reasons for terrorism activities of al-shabab in Somalia
The last week’s assault on a luxury hotel by al-Shabaab, the Somali affiliate of al-Qaeda (banned in Russia) left 21 people dead and more than 100 injured in Mogadishu, Somalia.
US experts believe that al-Shabaab has repeatedly attacked “soft targets” throughout Somalia, often focusing on hotels and other places frequented by civilians.
The attack on the Hyatt Hotel, popular with government officials and Somali lawmakers, was the first major attack since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took office in May.
The complex attack demonstrated sophistication as the militant group used automatic weapons and explosives during the assault.
The attack was condemned by the United Nations, Turkey, Kuwait and several other countries immediately after it took place.
Some counterterrorism analysts have drawn attention to the slow response of the Somali security services, whose work is likely to be subject to further scrutiny in the coming days and weeks.
The attack follows an increase in U.S. airstrikes against the terrorist group, despite what appears to be a reduction in strategic efforts to combat and prevent terrorism around the world.
In early August, the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) announced several airstrikes in and around Tidan, Somalia, eliminating more than a dozen of al-Shabaab fighters.
In May, US President George Biden announced the reversal of former President Trump’s decision to withdraw special operations forces fr om Somalia and sent several hundred troops back to this country, although the administration did not disclose a specific number.
Despite airstrikes and an increase in the presence of US troops in Somalia, al-Shabaab clearly retains the ability to launch high-profile terrorist attacks in the capital of the country.
Al-Shabaab controls vast areas in central and southern Somalia and has recently launched attacks along Somalia’s border with Ethiopia, raising concerns about a new offensive and whether airstrikes alone can address the issue posed by this terrorist group that has eluded counterterrorism efforts since its founding in 2006.
Furthermore, al-Shabaab can wreak havoc across the region, including in neighboring Kenya, wh ere the group has expanded its recruitment and propaganda efforts over the past decade.
After the assassination of al-Qaeda emir Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan in the end of July, there was intense discussion about how his death might affect the wider global jihadist movement, but especially how it would affect al-Qaeda’s worldwide network of affiliates.
Al-Shabaab is among the most active of these affiliates and there have been some speculations that it could provide the next leader of al-Qaeda.
The group has proven time and time again that it remains highly resilient and adaptable to counter-terror pressures and is able to put the Somali government in a difficult position demonstrating to the Somalis that the government and the security forces are unable to protect them.
In the last weekend’s attack, al-Shabaab militants detonated two powerful car bombs at the main entrance of the hotel, after which they broke into the building and took hostages on the upper floors.
Despite the loss of some of its senior leaders, the group’s experience in bomb-building is evident. In October 2017, an al-Shabaab truck bomb exploded at a busy intersection in Mogadishu killing more than 500 people.
The issue of al-Shabaab revitalization comes in the context of deteriorating conditions across Somalia, increasing concerns that go beyond the security area. This includes severe drought and growing food shortages, with the possibility that the country could soon face catastrophic famine.
Under these conditions, the role of al-Shabaab as the de facto governing body throughout the country has made international officials to consider the feasibility of declaring them a terrorist group through the UN system, since the members of the Security Council fear interruptions in the delivery of much-needed humanitarian assistance in this case.
However, as US efforts show, this does not preclude bilateral sanctions or action against the group. Somalia has been plagued by conflict for decades as governance deficits and endemic corruption hinder nation-building efforts.
The Biden administration’s decision to send elite special forces back to Somalia will likely help in the fight against al-Shabaab, but even this tactical advantage will make little difference to the country’s strategic prospects. As the global focus shifts fr om fighting and preventing terrorism to more traditional geopolitics and (current and potential) interstate conflicts, a country like Somalia could easily disappear from the radar, plunging back into civil war and famine until the situation reaches a critical point too existential to be ignored.
Such has been the cycle for the past four decades, with external players taking fragmented measures, never coming together to develop a comprehensive diagnosis or respond to the long-term needs of the country and its people.
In this regard, we note that the latest terrorist attack in Mogadishu has a purely internal reason. Namely, there is a split in al-Shabaab itself into radicals and moderates. Or, to put it even more simply, the split is along the lines of the struggle against the incorporation of some Al-Shabaab supporters into the new government of Somalia.
In early August, the new Prime Minister of Somalia Hamza Abdi Barre appointed Al-Shabaab co-founder and spokesman Mukhtar Robow as minister. Experts say that the move looks well-calculated and should be seen as a peace offer to al-Shabaab extremists, with the message that if they want to return to constitutionalism and the rule of law, the door is open.
In reality, we are talking about the old tactic of initiating a split in Al-Shabaab, which previously used that very Robow. The US placed a $5 million bounty on his head before he left al-Shabaab in 2013, and the Americans lifted sanctions on him in an attempt to play the “Iraq scenario” in Somalia. But then it failed.
Judging by the latest incident, the same thing will happen now. Barre said that from now on Robow will serve as Minister of Religious Affairs. Given the religious nature of Somalia, this position is very influential indeed. This appointment is aimed at strengthening and implementing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s vision of a unified Somali government that will not exclude any citizen or region, but rather unite Somalia as a single nation and rebuild it.
Robow has been under house arrest for the past three years. Besides being a founder, he was the deputy leader of al-Shabaab. In December 2018, he was in the Southwestern State of Somalia, campaigning for the post of regional president. The protests that followed were violently suppressed when at least 11 people were shot dead by security personnel, after which Robow was arrested.
He must now shore up government forces in his home region of Bakul, wh ere al-Shabaab holds significant territory. Opponents accused him of “organizing a militia” in Baidoa, the capital of the southwestern Bay region, and seeking to “undermine stability.”
His appointment as a minister comes just weeks after newly elected President Mohamud hinted at his government’s willingness to negotiate with al-Shabaab when the time was right.
Last month, Mohamud said that “it takes more than a military approach to end the armed insurgency. I look forward to a reciprocal gesture from al-Shabaab that will stop the war and unite the nation.”
We venture to doubt this for the abovementioned reasons. First of all, because Robow does not have sufficient influence. To do this, you need to talk to other people in the leadership of al-Shabaab.
Source: Middle East Institute
US experts believe that al-Shabaab has repeatedly attacked “soft targets” throughout Somalia, often focusing on hotels and other places frequented by civilians.
The attack on the Hyatt Hotel, popular with government officials and Somali lawmakers, was the first major attack since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took office in May.
The complex attack demonstrated sophistication as the militant group used automatic weapons and explosives during the assault.
The attack was condemned by the United Nations, Turkey, Kuwait and several other countries immediately after it took place.
Some counterterrorism analysts have drawn attention to the slow response of the Somali security services, whose work is likely to be subject to further scrutiny in the coming days and weeks.
The attack follows an increase in U.S. airstrikes against the terrorist group, despite what appears to be a reduction in strategic efforts to combat and prevent terrorism around the world.
In early August, the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) announced several airstrikes in and around Tidan, Somalia, eliminating more than a dozen of al-Shabaab fighters.
In May, US President George Biden announced the reversal of former President Trump’s decision to withdraw special operations forces fr om Somalia and sent several hundred troops back to this country, although the administration did not disclose a specific number.
Despite airstrikes and an increase in the presence of US troops in Somalia, al-Shabaab clearly retains the ability to launch high-profile terrorist attacks in the capital of the country.
Al-Shabaab controls vast areas in central and southern Somalia and has recently launched attacks along Somalia’s border with Ethiopia, raising concerns about a new offensive and whether airstrikes alone can address the issue posed by this terrorist group that has eluded counterterrorism efforts since its founding in 2006.
Furthermore, al-Shabaab can wreak havoc across the region, including in neighboring Kenya, wh ere the group has expanded its recruitment and propaganda efforts over the past decade.
After the assassination of al-Qaeda emir Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan in the end of July, there was intense discussion about how his death might affect the wider global jihadist movement, but especially how it would affect al-Qaeda’s worldwide network of affiliates.
Al-Shabaab is among the most active of these affiliates and there have been some speculations that it could provide the next leader of al-Qaeda.
The group has proven time and time again that it remains highly resilient and adaptable to counter-terror pressures and is able to put the Somali government in a difficult position demonstrating to the Somalis that the government and the security forces are unable to protect them.
In the last weekend’s attack, al-Shabaab militants detonated two powerful car bombs at the main entrance of the hotel, after which they broke into the building and took hostages on the upper floors.
Despite the loss of some of its senior leaders, the group’s experience in bomb-building is evident. In October 2017, an al-Shabaab truck bomb exploded at a busy intersection in Mogadishu killing more than 500 people.
The issue of al-Shabaab revitalization comes in the context of deteriorating conditions across Somalia, increasing concerns that go beyond the security area. This includes severe drought and growing food shortages, with the possibility that the country could soon face catastrophic famine.
Under these conditions, the role of al-Shabaab as the de facto governing body throughout the country has made international officials to consider the feasibility of declaring them a terrorist group through the UN system, since the members of the Security Council fear interruptions in the delivery of much-needed humanitarian assistance in this case.
However, as US efforts show, this does not preclude bilateral sanctions or action against the group. Somalia has been plagued by conflict for decades as governance deficits and endemic corruption hinder nation-building efforts.
The Biden administration’s decision to send elite special forces back to Somalia will likely help in the fight against al-Shabaab, but even this tactical advantage will make little difference to the country’s strategic prospects. As the global focus shifts fr om fighting and preventing terrorism to more traditional geopolitics and (current and potential) interstate conflicts, a country like Somalia could easily disappear from the radar, plunging back into civil war and famine until the situation reaches a critical point too existential to be ignored.
Such has been the cycle for the past four decades, with external players taking fragmented measures, never coming together to develop a comprehensive diagnosis or respond to the long-term needs of the country and its people.
In this regard, we note that the latest terrorist attack in Mogadishu has a purely internal reason. Namely, there is a split in al-Shabaab itself into radicals and moderates. Or, to put it even more simply, the split is along the lines of the struggle against the incorporation of some Al-Shabaab supporters into the new government of Somalia.
In early August, the new Prime Minister of Somalia Hamza Abdi Barre appointed Al-Shabaab co-founder and spokesman Mukhtar Robow as minister. Experts say that the move looks well-calculated and should be seen as a peace offer to al-Shabaab extremists, with the message that if they want to return to constitutionalism and the rule of law, the door is open.
In reality, we are talking about the old tactic of initiating a split in Al-Shabaab, which previously used that very Robow. The US placed a $5 million bounty on his head before he left al-Shabaab in 2013, and the Americans lifted sanctions on him in an attempt to play the “Iraq scenario” in Somalia. But then it failed.
Judging by the latest incident, the same thing will happen now. Barre said that from now on Robow will serve as Minister of Religious Affairs. Given the religious nature of Somalia, this position is very influential indeed. This appointment is aimed at strengthening and implementing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s vision of a unified Somali government that will not exclude any citizen or region, but rather unite Somalia as a single nation and rebuild it.
Robow has been under house arrest for the past three years. Besides being a founder, he was the deputy leader of al-Shabaab. In December 2018, he was in the Southwestern State of Somalia, campaigning for the post of regional president. The protests that followed were violently suppressed when at least 11 people were shot dead by security personnel, after which Robow was arrested.
He must now shore up government forces in his home region of Bakul, wh ere al-Shabaab holds significant territory. Opponents accused him of “organizing a militia” in Baidoa, the capital of the southwestern Bay region, and seeking to “undermine stability.”
His appointment as a minister comes just weeks after newly elected President Mohamud hinted at his government’s willingness to negotiate with al-Shabaab when the time was right.
Last month, Mohamud said that “it takes more than a military approach to end the armed insurgency. I look forward to a reciprocal gesture from al-Shabaab that will stop the war and unite the nation.”
We venture to doubt this for the abovementioned reasons. First of all, because Robow does not have sufficient influence. To do this, you need to talk to other people in the leadership of al-Shabaab.
Source: Middle East Institute