Expert opinion of the growing number of militants in Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan has never been stable. Some experts believe that after the chaotic withdrawal of American troops from the territory of this country, the overall picture has slightly improved: under the leadership of the Taliban movement that came to power, some order has been introduced there. On the contrary, other experts see a worsening situation.

In particular, the concentration of militants of various terrorist groups in Afghanistan causes great concern in the countries of Central Asia and Uzbekistan. Under the wing of the Taliban, they started feeling quite uninhibited on Afghan soil. Moreover, every year their numbers grow. And some of them are even ready to attack, experts are warning.

How likely is it for the situation to unfold like that? How can our country protect itself from external and internal threats? In this context, as well given the turbulence in global politics in general, is it worth thinking about resuming membership in the CSTO? Director of Ma'no Center for Research Initiatives Bakhtiyor Ergashev shared his point of view with a Podrobno.uz correspondent.

“When we talk about the threat of expansion of terrorist organizations in Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, we must understand that they are a very diverse group,” the expert started with.

Ergashev does not see any threat from the Taliban which represents the executive branch in Kabul. According to him, the Taliban are not ready for expansion, at least not directly and right now.

However, in his opinion, the movement is beginning to unleash a water war as water turns into a tool for geopolitical influence and bargaining. The construction of the Kush-Tepa canal and statements about the possibility of building the Dashtijum hydroelectric power station on the Pyanj River are all tools of water geopolitics pursued by the current government of Afghanistan, the expert emphasized. 

He reminded that Afghanistan has serious contradictions with Iran on water issues regarding the flow of the Helmand River which resulted in armed clashes last spring. The country is now facing very serious difficulties regarding the Kunar River in eastern Afghanistan, which crosses the border with Pakistan.

“So there are a lot of issues related to water allocation in a large macro-region, including South Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia. And Afghanistan, in my opinion, has a very long-term strategy aimed at becoming a large distributor of water in this macro-region. This causes great concern among neighboring countries that are unwilling to participate in such water geopolitics with elements of blackmail and disrespect for their interests,” the expert said.

A much more real threat to Central Asia is posed by the Afghan offshoot of the Islamic State,the Vilayat Khorasan movement or the so-called ISIS-Khorasan (ISKP).

“In 2021 the number of ISKP militants amounted to approximately 5-7 thousand militants, and now their number has reached at least 15-17 thousand. Different experts give different estimates, but everyone who specializes in Afghanistan agrees that there is a dynamic increase in the number of militants affiliated with this movement. This is an unequivocal fact,” Ergashev said.

The ultimate goal of this movement is to establish the state of Khorasan which would include the territories of the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan. These terrorists plan to have Bukhara as the capital of this state.

“The expansionism of ISKP is undeniable, so it seems much more likely that they will intensify their actions in the direction of our region. At the same time, ISKP is willing, and presently opportunities are already appearing. The question is when the owners of the movement - those countries that sponsor them - will give them the go-ahead to move towards Central Asia,” the expert said.

In addition, Ergashev noted that there are a number of smaller organizations that are also expansionist in their ideology. These are the groups which are still small-sized, such as Katiba Imam al-Bukhari or Katiba at-Tawhid wal-Jihad, redeployed from the Middle East to Afghanistan, whose fighters are mostly Uzbekistan natives.

“There is the Jamaat Ansarullah movement, too. The Al-Qaeda movement in Afghanistan has not gone anywhere; it lives, prospers and actively cooperates with the Taliban movement. And everyone knows that Al-Qaeda is a project aimed at global jihad. Thus, the threat from al-Qaeda also lingers,” the expert emphasized.

At the same time, Ergashev notes that all these organizations have different sponsors. These include the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, and to a certain extent, Western countries, which have always supervised certain groups in Afghanistan through certain countries.

“The Taliban movement has not yet been able to fully resolve the issue with terrorist organizations that are located on the territory of Afghanistan. And perhaps a certain part of the Taliban would not want to seriously and really fight them. After all, as I already said, the movement itself is very fragmented within So this motley conglomerate of terrorist organizations, which now feel quite at ease on Afghan soil, is a very real threat,” the expert believes.

“The Taliban movement has not yet been able to fully resolve the issue with terrorist organizations that are located in Afghanistan. Perhaps, a certain part of the Taliban would not want to fight them for real, in all seriousness. After all, as I already said, the movement itself is very fragmented within. This why this motley conglomerate of terrorist organizations, which now feel quite at ease on Afghan soil, is a very real threat,” the expert believes.