The current position of the "Islamic State" terrorist group in Mozambique

In January 2022, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) extended the mandate for deploying its troops in Mozambique to combat the militants of the local branch of the “Islamic State.” At that time, the group based in the country was considered a splinter of the “Islamic State in Central Africa Province” (ISCAP). Since then, the Mozambican wing of ISCAP renamed itself as the “Islamic State in Mozambique,” reorganizing into a separate faction. This process may have somewhat weakened the local militants, allowing SADC and government armed forces to strengthen their positions in countering terrorists.

During 2020 and 2021, the terrorists escalated their attacks on coastal towns, like Mocimboa da Praia and Palma. Foreign energy companies, faced with the risks of casualties among their staff, suspended their gas projects. When local military and police proved unable to beat the militants back, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional organization sent a force to support the government. Additionally, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, after conversations with French President Emmanuel Macron and Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne, sent a contingent of military and police personnel in July 2021. Later that year, Mr. Kagame himself visited Mozambique and reinforced the Rwandese forces operating in the critical areas, which numbered around 3,000.  

Over the past few months, ISIS cells in Mozambique (ISIS-M) have carried out several major terrorist attacks. For example, militants from the group killed 11 Christians in a small village on September 25, 2023. Such locations provide an easy target for ISIS-M, enabling them to avoid direct confrontations with national and regional security forces while spreading anti-Christian rhetoric within the country and abroad.

However, the overall pace of ISIS attacks in Mozambique does not match the peak activity of the group in 2021 when they managed to capture the port of Palma in the Cabo Delgado province, leading to the shutdown of major energy facilities. The capture of Palma included the temporary occupation of a power station and the killing of several foreign specialists.

In the meantime, the army has declared that ISIS-M is “defeated.” This resembles in many ways the Nigerian government’s premature declarations that Boko Haram had been “technically defeated” in 2015, which was disproven shortly after. Consistent with the former’s claim of victory is the assertion by Mozambique Defence Forces Commander Tiago Alberto Nampele that IS fighters have lost more than 90 percent of the territory they formerly controlled in northern Mozambique.

Allegedly, the group has only 200 to 250 active fighters remaining. But even if this confidence is accurate at present, it could prove to be misplaced, should the jihadists succeed in capitalizing on the planned SADC withdrawal in July 2024. This timeline had been established in July 2023, and was reaffirmed in December, 2023.

Should the SADC withdraw, it would leave the burden of counter-insurgency to the Mozambican forces and their Rwandan allies.

Mozambique's President Filipe Nyusi announced the death of the leader of local terrorists, Bonomade Machude Omar, also known as Ibn Omar or Abu Suraka, in the end of 2023. Ibn Omar was the deputy commander of Al-Shabaab, the local ISIS unit responsible for terror in northern Mozambique since October 2017, resulting in over 6,500 casualties and displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Terrorist attacks caused a serious economic crisis, halting major gas projects by TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil.

In addition to ensuring the safety of the country's citizens, the ability of Mozambican military to suppress ISIS is crucial for the country's economy. If the security situation stabilizes, TotalEnergies, which halted its LNG plant in Palma in 2021, plans to resume operations in early 2024, bringing much-needed revenue to the state. ExxonMobil's decision to return in 2025 depends on the security situation, crucial for Mozambique's gas prospects. Other countries, such as Japan and India, plan to invest significant funds in Mozambique's LNG resources.

Thus, if the situation develops favorably, there is a possibility that international players outside SADC may be willing to support Mozambique's counter-terrorism efforts according to their economic, humanitarian goals, and security interests.