Terrorist threat growing both in Afghanistan and in the region: UN Report
The link between the Taliban and al-Qaeda and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist groups remains “strong and mutually beneficial.” This was stated in the report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Group of the UN Security Council Committee.
“A number of terrorist groups have a lot of freedom of action under the de facto rule of the Taliban. They are actively exploiting this situation, while the threat of terrorism is growing both in Afghanistan and in the region,” the report notes.
The report says there are signs that al-Qaida is regaining operational capacity, and the group views Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as a “safe haven.”
At the same time, the Taliban are trying to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (IS-K), which they see as their “main rival.” UN Security Council member states assess IS-K “as the most significant current terrorist threat in Afghanistan, neighboring countries and Central Asia,” the report says.
Experts estimate the number of IS-K fighters to be between 4,000 and 6,000, and the group has established new training camps in the country over the past year. The report notes that IS-K targeted TTP members, Uyghurs and representatives of ethnic Tajik and Uzbek minorities who were unhappy with the Taliban ideology.
Part of the report is also devoted to internal relations within the Taliban. It was noted that the Taliban “returned to the restrictive, pro-Pashtun-oriented autocratic policies” pursued by the Taliban administration fr om 1996 to 2001, when they first seized power in Afghanistan.
According to experts, “some divisions are evident” in the Taliban leadership, although the Taliban are still united, and the authority of Haibatullah Akhundzada (theologian and leader of the Taliban since 2016 - ed.) is growing.
The main split in the Taliban leadership is between the factions that represent the centers of power in Kandahar, wh ere Haibatullah and his close circle of clerics are based, and Kabul, where the current cabinet of ministers works.
“The ongoing power struggle between various faction leaders is destabilizing the situation further, to the point where the risk of armed conflict between rival factions is becoming very apparent,” the report says.
At the same time, experts believe that “the unity of the Taliban will most likely be maintained” in the next year or two.
After the publication of the report, the Taliban provided comments. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid called it “unfounded and biased.” He also said that allegations of divisions among the Taliban leadership showed “clear hostility” towards the Afghans.