The global jihadist groups are once again attempting to spread their influence in Syria

Islamic State (IS) group is attempting to regroup and regain lost positions in Syria, according to a UN Secretary-General report. The report states that this jihadist organization still has the capacity to carry out attacks that result in significant civilian casualties. Despite losing its territories, the IS seeks to take advantage of the shift in international attention towards the conflict between Israel and Hamas, according to experts.

The UN Secretary-General's report drew attention to conclusions regarding the restoration of IS capacity, as reported by the North Press agency which is close to Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria. According to UN estimates, the IS is attempting to regroup and reorganize in Syria. Global experts believe the organization still has the capability to carry out attacks that result in significant casualties. According to the report, Islamic State’s financial reserves range fr om 10 to 25 million US dollars, with a significant portion collected in the form of cryptocurrencies through social media. The organization has an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq, operating in small cells.

However, experts believe that the IS keeps implementing its program to recruit children in the detention camps for the families of the militants. One such facility is the Al Hawl camp, located in the zone of responsibility of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a non-governmental armed Kurdish-led alliance. Kurdish representatives emphasize the persistence of this threat from the IS. “IS activity has significantly increased, especially in our areas and Syrian desert regions,” said SDF's official spokesman in Washington Sinam Mohammed. “In less than two months, the organization has claimed responsibility for 16 different operations in our districts and more than 30 operations in the Syrian desert area.”

The specialized analytical organization Counter Extremism Project has documented that the militants of the self-proclaimed “caliphate” carried out at least 65 attacks in Syria in January. This took place at the intersection of the influence zones of the SDF and government forces, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). According to the Counter Extremism Project's assessment, the January figures demonstrate a sharp increase in activity compared to the numbers for 2023. Project experts emphasize that over the past year, the IS has been able to remaster its cells and some military and technical capacity in Syria. For some reason, the radical organization has become more confident in carrying out attacks, according to analysts.

However, in conversations with Western media, unnamed officials from the US presidential administration try to downplay the problem of IS activity and express confidence that the terrorist group “is not in the condition that it could act and consolidate its tactical maneuvers and clashes into a full-fledged operation.” Fighters also “cannot hold or seize territory,” emphasize US officials. At the same time, the leaders of the jihadist organization prefer to avoid major cities and concentrate human resources in remote rural areas, according to these assessments. The most well-known point of IS presence in Syria is the desert.

However, according to assessments by the US intelligence service, the top of the IS is considering the option wh ere command and control could be moved away from Syria and Iraq. The US officials note that most of the “known conspiracies” recently led to the Afghan branch of IS – the ISKP group (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia). At the same time, some signs lead Western intelligence agencies to assume that some African branches of the IS seem to be gaining strength and influence. This prompts some UN member states to consider a “more likely” relocation of the group's key commanders to another continent.

Speaking of Syria and Iraq, most analysts agree that the IS is trying to take advantage of the shift in international attention towards the Gaza sector and restore its potential.

As noted by Senior Advisor on Syria, the Middle East, and North Africa at the US Institute of Peace Monna Yakubian, if the SDF is subjected to new attacks by Turkey or if the US presidential administration makes a final decision to withdraw its troops from Syria, this will encourage the IS leadership to make efforts to regain the lost territories. “There are about 10,000 militants of the group in places of IS militant detention. This is a real “prison army” that can quickly turn into a serious threat to global interests if it breaks free,” Yakubian concludes.