Expert opinion of radicalization of Islam in the region

Today, radical sentiments are on the rise worldwide, including in the Central Asian region. These processes have not bypassed the region of Central Asia. The growing Islamic radicalization alongside the unstable Afghanistan as a neighbor, where representatives of various terrorist groups have gathered, causes concern among many experts.

How is Islamic radicalism manifested, and what factors contribute to it? What are the consequences, and who benefits fr om it? Victor Mikhaylov, the director of the Center for the Study of Regional Threats, shared insights on these matters with Podrobno.uz.

According to him, specialists indeed observe the rise of radicalization in the region. However, he emphasizes that the level of radicalization is increasing globally, not just in Central Asia. “To be fair and more precise in wording, the overall level of radicalization is growing, not only religious one,” noted Mikhaylov. 

The expert reminded that many conflicts in our region, including bloody ones, were based on artificially created inter-ethnic or inter-confessional issues. Fortunately, in Uzbekistan, attempts by radical nationalists to destabilize the country were thwarted immediately after gaining independence. “We all remember the tough position of the first president regarding Erk and Birlik opposition parties. At that time, the firm stance of the state prevented it from sliding into interethnic confrontation,” he said.

Speaking specifically about religious radicalization, the expert notes that it has significantly grew as a background in the country. Liberalization and democratization, which entered society with the new president in 2016, had to affect the interest in Islam, too. The external attributes of religious zeal, such as hijabs or beards, which are seen by everyone, are considered a normal phenomenon.

However, against this backdrop, followers of political Islam and carriers of Salafi ideology have also become more active, enjoying significant popularity on the internet among youth. It is the calls of these followers for political changes and attempts to interfere in the activities of secular authorities that pose the greatest threat to our country.

“Unfortunately, numerous closed communities have emerged on social media that openly discuss the ideas of various foreign terrorist organizations (FTO), based in Syria or Afghanistan, or religious extremist organizations (REO) that are banned in Uzbekistan, such as Hizb ut-Tahrir, or other similarly destructive groups,” the expert said.

Comments or even just “likes” from young people as reactions to the preachings of radical leaders broadcasting from their “apartment bases” in Turkey or some European countries evoke serious concerns, he added. “Unfortunately, we have to state that these preachings lead to results expected by the foreign centers. There are documented cases wh ere parents of some students expressed displeasure with subjects taught at school, such as astronomy, physics, or biology,” emphasized the expert.

In their preachings, self-proclaimed sheikhs and imams persuade their listeners that only Islam can effectively combat corruption and other shortcomings present in the country. They also call for interethnic and interconfessional discord. “It is must be remembered that such a radical backdrop facilitates the work of recruiting jamaats. The fact that logistics for sending recruits to Afghanistan or Syria are difficult should not be reassuring, as already recruited recruits potentially remain in the recruitment countries in a dormant mode,” Mikhaylov emphasized.

It is known that there are many terrorist groups concentrated presently in Afghanistan. Different experts provide varying estimates of the number of militants in the neighboring country, but most agree that there is an upward trend.

This raises significant concerns among specialists in Central Asian countries, particularly in Uzbekistan. Afghanistan also hosts several expansionist organizations whose members include Uzbek natives.

According to Mikhailov, Uzbek natives are members of three FTOs that are presently based in Afghanistan - the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (IMT), the Union of Islamic Jihad (IJU) and Katibat al-Imam Bukhari (KiB).

In addition, according to the expert, presently in these organizations there are less than half of militants who hold passports of our country. The rest are natives of the CIS countries, Turkey, Arab countries and Afghanistan itself.

“I think that the situation has changed dramatically since 2001. At that time there were almost 4 thousand mujahideen in the ranks of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (the current IMT) and most of them came from our country. And they all dreamed of returning to their homeland with victory and creating a Caliphate in Fergana Valley. But all the militants of that period have long been destroyed, and the current ones are only ready to fight for money,” the expert said.

This means that, if the abovementioned terrorist organizations or some other groups, which are now widely present in Afghanistan, have serious sources of funding, and therefore have customers, then it is possible that the militants from Afghanistan may march North. But who could be such a sponsor and a customer? – notes Mikhailov.

He also commented on the possible direct interest of the West, which, according to some experts, finances terrorist religious groups, and uses Wahhabism and other varieties of radical Islamism to weaken the influence of its competitors in the region.

“Several well-known books, as well as many studies, articles and reviews have been written on this topic. It is possible that some centers really want to destabilize a relatively calm (save for Afghanistan) region. Starting a fire in the underbelly of China and Russia, whether on a religious or ethnic basis, is a spectacular geopolitical game with a result that will be difficult to predict,” the expert stated.

According to him, the religious radicalization, far-right or far-left groups, and interethnic and interreligious conflicts are the old methods that the intelligence services of different states are happy to use.

According to some experts, Russia is Uzbekistan’s main ally and guarantor in matters of security. But is this country the only one ready to come to our aid in difficult times?

“I don’t know whether Russia is the guarantor of Uzbekistan’s security, but peace and quiet in Central Asia is in its interests. This is important for economic, cultural, political ties and cooperation that are effectively developing between our countries,” Mikhailov emphasized.

Therefore, it is completely natural that in the event of any aggression from an FTO from Afghanistan, Russia can provide military support to one degree or another, he added.

“However, I think that in this case the Uzbek armed forces and special services will independently address the problems of the invasion. By the way, previous experience gained by special units has proven that they possess this capability,” the expert concluded.